CPI Inopfuura Zvinotarisirwa: Chokwadi Zviviri, Chokwadi Chimwechete
09/27/2022
Inflation inokwira asi haitombodzike
Chipiri chekupedzisira, Dhipatimendi reBasa rakaburitsa data inoratidza kuti CPI yakasimuka 8.3% muna Nyamavhuvhu kubva pagore rapfuura, nepo tarisiro yaive ye8.1%.
Uku ndiko kuburitswa kwekupedzisira kweinflation data isati yakwira mwedzi uno, izvo pasina mubvunzo zvakaunza kufarira kwakanyanya mumisika yepasi rose svondo rapfuura, apo Wall Street yakarohwa ne "Black Chipiri" kaviri mumasheya nemabhondi.
Kuenzaniswa nehuwandu hwekukwira kwemitengo 8.5% muna Chikunguru, CPI muna Nyamavhuvhu inongova 0.2 muzana inokwirisa kupfuura tarisiro yemusika iyo yave iri mukuderera kwemwedzi miviri yakateedzana.Vanhu vazhinji vanogona kunge vasina chokwadi kuti nei misika yemari ichiri kutya.
Iwe unoziva, zuva rekuburitswa kwedata ndiko kudzikira kukuru mumakore maviri, goho reUS bond rakakwira, makore maviri eUS bond goho kunyange kusvika pamakore gumi nemashanu akakwira.
Izvi zvinoshamisa zvemusika kusagadzikana chete nekuda kwe "zvisingakoshi" zvinotarisirwa musiyano we0.2%?
Tarisiro yehukama mukufanotaura kwemusika kwekutanga kwakakonzerwa nekudonha kwakanyanya kwemitengo yemagetsi muna Nyamavhuvhu, kunyanya mitengo yepeturu, iyo inoratidzwa zvakare mune ichangoburwa data.
Nekudaro, aya data anoratidzawo kuti kuvhunduka kwakakonzerwa nedenda kwashanduka kuita inflation yakazara uye haina kuramba sezvaitarisirwa nemusika.
Iyo inoratidzika kunge isingakoshi yekutarisira gaka ye0.2 muzana yemapoinzi inogona kuvanza mamiriro akakomba zvakanyanya kupfuura anoratidzwa nenhamba.
Rate kukwira tarisiro inova yakakwirira zvakare
Kutaura zvazviri, mitengo yemagetsi inenge ingori nhau dzakanaka chete mumushumo uyu wekukwira kwemitengo.
Kupfuura izvozvo, mitengo iri kukwira muchikamu chose chikuru, kusanganisira chikafu, rendi, zvipfeko, fenicha, mota, hutano nezvimwe.
Uye sezvatinoziva tose, mitengo yemagetsi yakagara ichizivikanwa nokuda kwekushanduka kwayo kukuru, uye hapana chivimbo chokuti mitengo yemafuta, iyo yakaderera muna August, haizomuki zvakare mumwedzi iri mberi.
Kana iwe ukanyatsotarisisa kukudziridzwa kweiyo inflation data mu "kudonha" kwakazara mune chikamu data, hazvifanirwe kuve zvakaoma kunzwisisa kuti nei musika uri kutongoerekana uchibhejera pakuwedzera kwe100.
Rangarira, iyo Fed yakasimudza mazinga nehuwandu hwe225 hwaro hwemapoinzi kubva munaKurume, asi kuwedzera kwemitengo kunoratidzika kunge kusingaratidzi kunonoka.
Parizvino, CME Group FedWatch chishandiso chinoratidza kuti mukana weiyo 75 foundation point Fed rate kukwira munaGunyana wawedzera kusvika pa77% uye mukana we100 basis point rate kukwira uri pa23%.
Mufananidzo: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Musika unotanga kunzwisisa kuti Fed's tightening policy haizoshanduki, kunyanya kusvika pakupera kwegore, nokuti US equities inogara yakatarisana nezvematongerwo enyika ekudzvinyirira.
Inotevera chiyero chekukwira nzira.
Fed's 75 basis point rate kukwira pamusangano waGunyana 21 yaive chokwadi kuti ichaitika.
Nekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira kunotsigirwa nedata rakasimba rehupfumi, vakuru veFederal Reserve vakatora danho rekurwisa inflation uye kudzivirira kuti isakwira zvakare.
Musika parizvino unotarisira kuti mari yemubatanidzwa ichakwira pamusoro pe4% kusvika 4.25% pakupera kwegore, zvinoreva kuti inosvika zana nemakumi mashanu mapoinzi ekukwira kwemitengo mumisangano mitatu yasara gore rino.
Izvi zvinotora 75 basic point rate kukwira munaGunyana, kozoita makumi mashanu mapoinzi muna Mbudzi, uye angangoita makumi maviri neshanu mapoinzi muna Zvita.
Kana iyo chiyero chemutemo chiri pamusoro pe4%, ichave ichiitwa mune iyo "inodzivirira nhanho" kwenguva yakareba, sezvakambotaurwa naPowell.
Mune mamwe mazwi, mitengo yemortgage icharamba yakakwira kwenguva yakati rebei!Vaya vanoda mari yembavha vanofanira kutora mukana uyu kusati kwakwira kukwira.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-27-2022