[Kukwira kwechiyero kunosvika kumagumo] Powell "leak" inomisa mwero wekukwira?
02/10/2023
Kuwedzera kunonoka kwekufamba!
Chitatu chapfuura, musangano waFebruary weFOMC wakapera.
Sezvinotarisirwa nevakawanda nemusika, Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee yakazivisa kuwedzera kwemakumi maviri neshanu, kukwidza huwandu hwakatarwa hwemari yemubatanidzwa kubva pa4.25% -4.50% kusvika 4.50% -4.75%.
Uku ndiko kuderera kwechipiri kwakateedzana muyero yekukwira kweFed uye yekutanga kukwira kwemapoinzi makumi maviri nemashanu chete kubva munaKurume wegore rapfuura.
Kutevera nhau, goho reUS bond rakadonha zvakanyanya kusvika kune nyowani-vhiki mbiri yakaderera ye3.398%, pasi kubva 3.527% zuva rapfuura.
Musika unotenda kuti Fed iri munzira yekudzikamisa kukwira kwemitengo uye kuti kumbomira chitubu ichi chawedzera.
Musiyano mukuru kubva pamusangano wapfuura ndewekuti, kekutanga, pane kuzivikanwa kuti inflation yadzikamisa kusvika kumwero wakati.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Bloomberg
Izvi zvinoreva kuti zviratidzo zvekukwira kwemitengo zvakatariswa neFed zviri kufamba nenzira yakanaka - izvo zvinosimbisa kuti Fed's interest rate yekukwira process yave kupera kwayo.
The penultimate X rate kukwira?
Kuenzaniswa nechirevo chakaitwa pamusangano wechiyero, Sachigaro weFed Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference inowanzo nyanya kukosha.
Pamusangano wevatori venhau uyu, vatori venhau vakazeya mibvunzo yaPowell yekuti achamira riini kukwidza mitengo.
Pakupedzisira, Powell haana kumirisana nekumanikidzwa, hafu kana "kudonhedza" saka musika wairatidza kusimbisa kupera kwekukwira kwemitengo munguva pfupi!
Powell akati iyo FOMC iri kukurukura kukwidza mitengo kakati wandei (vaviri mamwe) kusvika kumazinga ekudzora, wozombomira;uye akati vagadziri vemitemo havatende kuti inguva yekumbomira kukwira kwemitengo.
Vazhinji vatori vechikamu pamusika vakadudzira chirevo ichi (vaviri zvimwe) semamwe maviri ekuwedzera chiyero.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti mibairo icharamba ichikwidziridzwa ne25 nheyo dzekutanga muna March naMay, izvo zvinoreva kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwematongerwo enyika kusvika ku5% kusvika ku5.25%, maererano netarisiro yehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemari sezvakaratidzwa muna December. dot plot.
Nekudaro, kunyangwe zano raPowell remamwe maviri ekuwedzera mwero, musika unotarisira imwe chete munaKurume.
Parizvino, tarisiro ye25 base point rate kukwira munaKurume ndeye 85%, uye musika unotenda kuti tarisiro yeimwe Fed rate yekukwira muna Chivabvu yakaderera.
Musika wacho hausisina hanya neFed
Pakave nehondo inotyisa pakati pemusika neFed kubva muna Mbudzi wapfuura, asi iko zvino chiyero pakati pemusika neFed chinoratidzika kunge chiri kunyura mukufarira yekare.
Mwedzi mitatu yapfuura yakaona kusunungurwa kukuru kwemamiriro emari: Misika yemasheya yakakwira, goho remabhondi rakadonha, mitengo yembavha yakadonha kubva pakukwirira kwayo, uye muna Ndira wegore rino, masheya eUS akatotumira maitiro avo akanaka kubva 2001.
Kubva pakuita kwemusika, maviri ekupedzisira mareti kukwira, musika anenge ese akagaya mibairo yekukwira kudzika kusvika 50bp uye 25bp pamberi.
Pane pfungwa yakajeka yekuti musika hauna kunyanya kunetseka nezveFed uchienzaniswa nenguva isati yasvika Zvita 2022 - musika haucharatidzike kuva nehanya neFed.
Kunyange zvazvo Fed ichiramba ichisimudza mitero yenguva pfupi, yepakati uye yakareba kwenguva refu, iyo inonyanya kukonzerwa nevanotarisira mari (zvakadai semari yakawanda yezvikwereti), yakamira kukwira kana kuti yakatanga kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma.
30-makore emari yemitengo yakadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pakakwirira muna Gumiguru (Mufananidzo Kunobva: Freddie Mac)
Pamusoro pezvo, kunyange kusimba-kupfuura-inotarisirwa basa uye data yekukura kwehupfumi haina chayakaita kushandura mafungiro emusika.
Musika uyu unowanzo tenda kuti huwandu hwazvino hwemitengo yakakwira kusvika padanho rinogona kukonzeresa kudzikira uye kuti Federal Reserve inogona kutanga kucheka mitengo gore rino.
Uye nemhedzisiro iyoyo, kuderera kwemitengo yemortgage kunowedzera kutaurwa.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Feb-11-2023