Iyo "Pepa Tiger" GDP: Chiroto cheFed chekudzika munyoro chinoitika here?
02/03/2023
Sei GDP yakakunda zvaitarisirwa?
NeChina chapfuura, Commerce Department data yakaratidza kuti US chaiyo GDP yakakura pa2.9% quarter-over-quarter rate gore rapfuura, zvishoma pane 3.2% kuwedzera mukota yechitatu asi yakakwira kupfuura iyo musika yapfuura fungidziro ye2.6%.
Mune mamwe mazwi: nepo misika yaifungidzira kuti kukura kwehupfumi kuchatora zvakanyanya mu2022 kubva kuFed's hefty rate kukwira, iyi GDP inozviratidza: kukura kwehupfumi kuri kuderera, asi haina kusimba sezvaitarisirwa nemusika.
Asi ndizvo zvazviri chaizvo here?Kukura kweupfumi kuchiri kusimba here?
Ngatitarisei kuti chii chaizvo chiri kuita kuti hupfumi hwenyika husimukire.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mumamiriro ezvinhu ekugadzirisa, mari yakagadziriswa yakadonha ne 1.2% uye yave yakanyanya kukwevera pakukura kwehupfumi.
Sezvo kukwira kweFed kwakawedzera mitengo yekukwereta, zvine musoro kuti kudyara kwakatemwa kwaizodzikira.
Zvigadzirwa zvepachivande, kune rumwe rutivi, ndizvo zvakakonzera kukura kwehupfumi muchikamu chechina, zvichikwira 1.46% kubva pakota yapfuura, zvichidzoreredza kuderera kwezvikamu zvitatu zvakapfuura.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti makambani ari kutanga kudzoreredza zvinyorwa zvawo zvegore idzva, saka kukura muchikamu ichi kwaive kusingaite.
Imwe seti yedata yakabata kutarisisa kwemusika: mashandisiro ekushandisa ega akakwira ne2.1% chete mukota yechina, iri pasi petarisiro yemusika ye2.9%.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Bloomberg
Semutyairi mukuru wekukura kwehupfumi, kushandiswa ndicho chikamu chikuru cheUS GDP (inenge 68%).
Kuderera kwekushandiswa kwemari yemunhu kunoratidza kuti simba rekutenga harina kusimba pakupedzisira uye kuti vatengi havana chivimbo mune ramangwana rehupfumi tarisiro uye havadi kushandisa mari yavo pachavo.
Uye zvakare, kudiwa kwepamba (kusingabatanidze eveteri, mari yehurumende uye kutengeserana) kwakakura ne 0.2% chete, kudzikira kwakakosha kubva pa1.1% mukota yechitatu uye kuwedzera kudiki kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2020.
Kudzikira kwezvinodiwa mudzimba uye kushandiswa, ndizvo zviri pachena zviratidzo zvehupfumi hunotonhora.
Sam Bullard, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuWells Fargo Securities, anobvuma kuti iyi GDP rondedzero inogona kunge iri yekupedzisira yakanaka chaizvo, yakasimba kota data yatichaona kwechinguva.
"Chiroto" cheFed chinoitika?
Powell akataura kakawanda kuti kudzika kwehupfumi kwakapfava "kunogoneka."
A "soft landning" zvinoreva kuti Fed inochengetedza inflation yakakwira pasi pesimba apo hupfumi hunoratidza kusadzikira.
Nepo nhamba dzeGDP dziri nani pane zvinotarisirwa, zvinofanirwa kubvumwa: Hupfumi huri kuderera.
Mumwe anogona zvakare kutaura kuti hupfumi mukuderera kwakaoma kudzivirira, uye kuti GDP inorova zvinongoreva kuti kuderera kweramangwana kunogona kuuya gare gare kana padiki.
Chechipiri, zviratidzo zvekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika zvakanganisa mabasa.
Huwandu hwezvichemo zvekutanga zvemabhenefiti ekushaikwa kwemabasa eUS hwakadzika kusvika kumwedzi mipfumbamwe yakaderera muna Ndira, asi panguva imwecheteyo nhamba yevanhu vari kuramba vachiwana mabhenefiti eUS kusashanda yakatanga kukwira zvakare.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti vanhu vashoma vachangobva kushaya mabasa, asi vanhu vakawanda havasi kuwana mabasa.
Mukuwedzera, kuderera kwakanyanya kwekutengesa kwekutengesa uye kubudiswa kwefekitari mumwedzi miviri yapfuura uchapupu hwokuti hupfumi huri kune imwe nzvimbo yakaderera - hupfumi huchiri munzira yekuderera, uye kurota kwe "soft landning" kunogona kuva kwakaoma. kuwana.
Dzimwe nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinotenda kuti US ingangoita "kuderera kwehupfumi": kudzikira kwakatevedzana kwezviitiko zvehupfumi mumaindasitiri akasiyana, pane kudzikira kamwe chete.
Kuderedzwa kwemhindu kunotarisirwa munguva pfupi iri kutevera!
Iyo Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) mutengo wendekisi, inflation chiratidzo chekufarira kukuru kune Federal Reserve, yakakwira 3.2% mukota yechina kubva pagore rapfuura, iyo inononoka kukura mwero kubva 2020.
Zvichakadaro, tarisiro yeYunivhesiti yeMichigan ye1-gore inflation yakaramba ichiderera muna Ndira, ichiwira ku3.9%.
Core inflation yakagadziridzwa zvakanyanya, izvo zvinoderedza zvakanyanya kudzvanywa paFederal Reserve - kuwedzera mwero kukwira kungave kusingakodzeri uye kutarisisa kwakanyanya kunogona kubhadharwa mukukura kwehupfumi.
Zvichienderana neGDP, kune rumwe rutivi tinoona kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma mukukura kwehupfumi, uye kune rumwe rutivi, nekuda kwezvinotarisirwa kuderera kwehupfumi, Fed inongosimudza mhindu zvishoma muhafu yekutanga yegore kuitira kuti iwane yakapfava. zvinokwanisika kumhara kwehupfumi.
Kune rumwe rutivi, iyi inogona kunge iri chikamu chekupedzisira chekukura kwakasimba kweGDP, uye kana hupfumi huchiderera muhafu yechipiri yegore, Fed inogona kutamira kune kurerutsa gore risati rapera, uye kuderedzwa kwechiyero kunotarisirwa. nokukurumidza.
Nyanzvi munyaya dzezvehupfumi dzinotiwo nekuda kwekufambira mberi kwetekinoroji uye kubuda pachena kwegwaro reFed, kusamira zvakanaka kwekukwira kwemitengo kwakaderera pane kwaimboita kare, zvichiita kuti misika yezvemari itarisire mitengo maererano nezvinotarisirwa nemusika.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Freddie Mac
Sezvo Fed inononoka kukwira kwemitengo, mitengo yembavha yakadzikira, uye dzimba nyowani dzakakwira kwemwedzi wechitatu mumutsara muna Zvita, zvichiratidza kuti musika wedzimba unogona kutanga kupora.
Kana mubereko wakaderedzwa uchitarisirwa, musika unozotarisirawo mitengo, uye mitengo yembavha inozodonha nekukurumidza.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Feb-04-2023