[2023 Outlook] Iyo nguva yeiyo real estate bubble yapera, mubereko wakakwira uye musika wezvivakwa unotanga kupora muhafu yechipiri yegore!
12/19/2022
Powell: kuguma kwebubble reimba
Muna 2005, aimbova Sachigaro weFederal Reserve Alan Greenspan akaudza Congress kuti, "bubble redzimba muUnited States hazvigoneke."
Icho chokwadi ndechekuti, zvakadaro, bhavhu redzimba rakanga ratovepo uye rakanga rava kusvika pakakwirira apo Greenspan akasvitsa meseji iyoyo.
Nekukurumidza kumberi kune yazvino ya2022, uye sezvo isu takanga tichiri kutya kwekupedzisira kubhuroka kwedzimba, panguva ino vezvehupfumi havatyi kubvuma kuti iripo.
Musi waMbudzi 30, nyanzvi munyaya dzehupfumi pasi rose, Sachigaro weFederal Reserve, Jerome Powell, akabvuma kuvepo kwebhavhu redzimba pane chimwe chiitiko, achiti kukwira kwemitengo yedzimba dzemuUS panguva yedenda kunosangana netsanangudzo ye "bubble redzimba."
“Munguva yedenda, vanhu vaida kutenga dzimba vobuda muguta vachienda kumasabhabhu nekuda kwemitengo yakadzikira yembavha, uye panguva iyoyo mitengo yedzimba yakakwira kusvika padanho risingagadzirike, saka paive nebubble redzimba muUnited States. .”
MunaSeptember, Powell akati: United States yakapinda zviri pamutemo "nguva yakaoma yekugadzirisa" mumusika weimba, ivo vachadzorera "kuenzanisa" pakati pekupa uye kudiwa mumusika.
Uye zvino kuti bubble real estate yapera, nzira ye "re-balancing" misika yakatanga.
Maonero emusika wedzimba muna 2023
Muna 2022, inflation inopenga yakakurudzira kutsunga kweFed kuderedza inflation.
Nekumwe kukwira kwemwero mushure meumwe, mitero yembavha yakakwira pamwero usina kumboitika, ichiwedzera kubva pa1% pakutanga kwegore kusvika pa7%.
Mutengo wepamba wepakati penyika wange uchidzikira zvishoma nezvishoma kubva muhafu yechipiri yegore uye waive 7.9% pazasi kubva pakakwirira pakupera kwaNovember 2022.
(Mutengo weUS wepakati, Ndira-Mbudzi 2022; kunobva: Realtor)
Musingasviki mwedzi, tave kusvika ku "nguva" ya2022 uye mamwe "mubvunzo mamaki" a2023: Ko mitengo yemba yeUS icharamba ichidzika muna 2023?Musika wezvivakwa uchatendeuka rinhi?
Maererano nekufanotaura kweZillow uye Realtor, mutengo wepakati wepamba muUS ucharamba uchikwira mumwedzi gumi nemiviri inotevera.
Muchokwadi, vazhinji vezvehupfumi vezvivakwa vanofanotaura kuti mitengo yezvivakwa haizodonha zvakanyanya muna 2023, asi icharamba ichikwira zvinyoro uye zvishoma nezvishoma.
Nekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira, mitengo yakakwira yembangi, uye kunonoka kwekutengesa zvivakwa, nei vazhinji vachipokana kuti mitengo yemba haizodonha muna 2023?
Chaizvoizvo, mutongo mukuru unobva pakuti zvinhu muUS real estate market haisati yakwana uye nhamba yedzimba dziri kutengeswa yakaderera zvikuru, izvo zvichabatsira kuchengeta mitengo yemba yakatsiga.
Powell akabvumawo izvi mukutaura kwake svondo rapfuura – “Hapana chimwe cheizvi (kugadzirisa dzimba) chichaunza matambudziko achange aine simba renguva refu, kuwanda kwedzimba dziri kuvakwa kuchanetsa kuzadzisa zvinodiwa neveruzhinji, uye kushomeka kwedzimba kunoonekwa. zvinokwanisika kuenderera mberi kwenguva refu. "
(Mafungiro ekupedzisira e322 real estate market segments; source: Fortune)
Kunyange zvazvo "dzimba dzakasimba zvakanyanya" dzichamisa kuderera kwemitengo yedzimba, kuvandudzwa kwakasiyana kwemusika weimba kunogona kutungamirira kumamiriro ezvinhu apo mitengo yeimba inowedzera mune dzimwe nzvimbo uye mitengo yeimba inoderera kune dzimwe nzvimbo.“
Kunyanya, misika yaive "yakanyanya kuwanda" panguva yedenda yaigona kuona kuderera kwemitengo.
Mari dzemhindu dziri kukwira, musika wedzimba uchatendeuka rinhi?
Kubva muna Zvita 8, mubereko wemari yezvikwereti zvemakore makumi matatu yadonha kubva pakakwirira gore negore kubva pa7.08% kusvika pa6.33%, mushure mekudonha zvakanyanya kwemavhiki mana akateedzana.
Kunobva: Freddie Mac
Lisa, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuBright MLS, akati, "Izvi zvinoratidza kuti mari yembavha inogona kunge yakakwira."Asi vayambirawo kuti mari dzemubereko dzicharamba dzichichinja nekuda kwekusagadzikana kwehupfumi.
Nyanzvi dzakawanda, zvisinei, dzinotenda kuti mari yembavha inochinja-chinja asi inoramba iri mu7% renji uye kwete kutyora zvekare zvekare.
Mune mamwe mazwi, mitengo yemortgage yakakwira!Saka musika wekutengesa zvivakwa une usimbe uchaita riini?
Parizvino, mareti emubereko akakwira uye kuwanikwa kwakasimba kungangoramba kuchidzora vangangotenga dzimba, uye kushomeka kushoma kunogona kukonzera kudzikira kushoma kwemitengo yemba.
Muchikamu chechipiri cha2023, zvisinei, musika wezvivakwa waigona kuona kudzokororwa sezvo mubereko uchikwira uchipera, mitengo yembavha ichidonha, uye chivimbo chemutengi wemba chinodzoka zvishoma nezvishoma.
Muchidimbu, "iyo Fed's interest rate kukwira" ndechimwe chezvinhu zvakakosha zvinokanganisa maitiro emusika wekutengesa zvivakwa.
Kana inflation ichikwira, iyo Fed inononoka mwero wayo kukwira zvinoenderana, uye mitengo yembangi inodzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, izvo zvichave nemhedzisiro yakanaka mukudzoreredza kuvimba uye kufarira kwevasima mari kumusika wedzimba.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-20-2022