Gunyana Shrinkage Yekumhanya Yakapetwa Kaviri, Musika Wakadedera: Mari yeMortgage Kukwira!
09/12/2022
Kukwira kwemitengo kwakarova zvakanyanya, Shrinkage inozeza
Mwedzi mitatu yadarika, iyo Federal Reserve yakazivisa kuti kudzikira pepa remari yaivewo pahurongwa mushure mekutanga kutenderera kwechiyero.
Zvinoenderana nehurongwa hwakaburitswa neFed, saizi yeiyi kutenderera kweshrinkage ichave yakakura zvachose: $47.5 bhiriyoni pamwedzi kwemwedzi mitatu kutanga munaChikumi, kusanganisira $30 bhiriyoni mumaTreasury bond uye $17.5 bhiriyoni muMBS (mortgage-backed securities).
Misika yacho yaitya zvikuru zvisingazivikanwi panguva yekuderera kudarika chiyero chekuwedzera, shure kwezvose, kukanganisa pamusika wekutora nzira yakadaro yekuenzanisa pepa rekugadzirisa haigoni kuderedzwa.
Asi ikozvino mwedzi mitatu yapfuura, uye kana ichienzaniswa nekukwira kweFed kwehukasha gore rose, kusundidzira panguva imwe chete yekudzikira kunoratidzika kunge kuine huvepo hushoma, uye pakutanga kwaitove nemaonero mazhinji aiti Fed yakanga isati yatanga kuderera. , asi pachinzvimbo chaizvozvo akanga awedzera zvisina tsarukano pepa rekuenzanisa kuti rigadzikane uye misika yedzimba.
Asi kutepa chaiko ingori gimmick yakagadzirwa neFed?Chokwadi, iyo Fed iri kuenderera mberi nekutapa, nekunyanya kushoma kwehasha kupfuura zvaifungwa nemunhu wese pakutanga.
Sezvinotarisirwa neFed, kudhirowa kubva munaJune kusvika Nyamavhuvhu kunotarisirwa kunge kuri madhora bhiriyoni zana nemakumi mana neshanu, asi kusvika pari zvino chete madhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu emadhora muzvinhu zvakadonhedzwa.
Panobva mufananidzo:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Isingasviki hafu yehurongwa hwekutanga hwekuderera - zvichienzaniswa nevanorova vanorema pamutengo wemari inokwira, iyo Fed inoratidzika kunge inoshuvira-yakaoma maererano nekuderera.
Kudzivirira kudzikira, kunonoka kumhanya kwekuderera mumatanho ekutanga
Kuvepo kwakaderera kwekutanga kwe shrinkage kubva munaJune kusvika munaAugust kunonyanya kukonzerwa nekuti kuderedzwa chaiko kwehukuru hweFed assets kwaive kushoma pane zvaitarisirwa, uye musika wakanyatso kukanganiswa neiyo Fed's aggressive rate hike policy.
Kutaura zvazviri, mumwedzi mitatu yekutanga, kuderedzwa kwechikwereti cheFed muTreasuries kunonyanya kuenderana nehurongwa hwepakutanga, asi iyo MBS inobata haisi kuwira asi inomuka, izvo zvakatungamirira kumibvunzo yakawanda pamusoro peFed: iyo inonzi shrinkage yakaenda kupi?
Muchokwadi, musika weMBS wakanga watoona kutengesa kwakapararira Fed isati yaita sarudzo yayo maererano nekutapa.
Kusvika pari zvino gore rino, chiyero chemakore makumi matatu chechikwereti chakawedzera zvakapetwa kaviri kubva pachikamu chekutanga che30, izvo zvakonzera kuwedzera kwakanyanya kune vanotenga dzimba, vamwe vachiona mari yavo yekutenga imba ichiwedzera ne30%.Misika yezvivakwa inokurumidza kutonhora, uye kuderera kwekutengesa kwemba kuri kuwedzera mwedzi nemwedzi.
Mufananidzo zvikwereti.https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Iyo Fed inobata anosvika makumi matatu neshanu muzana emadhora mazana masere nemazana mana emadhora MBS musika, uye semuridzi mukuru mumwechete mumusika weMBS, kuvhura mafashama ekutengesa zvikwereti munzvimbo yakadai yemusika kunogona kukwidza mitengo yemba uye nekudaro kukonzeresa musika wekutengesa zvivakwa. kutonhorera nekukurumidza, izvo zvine njodzi.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo Fed yakadzora zvakanyanya kukurumidza kwekufamba mumwedzi mitatu yapfuura, pamwe neziso rekuona njodzi yekuderera.
Musika haugone kufuratira kukurumidza kwe shrinkage
Kubva munaGunyana 1, chivharo chechikwereti cheUS uye kuderera kweMBS kuchapetwa kaviri uye kusimudzwa kusvika pamadhora mazana mapfumbamwe nemashanu emadhora pamwedzi.
Mishumo mizhinji yakafanotaura kuti musika uchatanga kunzwa "kutonhora" kwekutapa kutanga mwedzi uno, mufananidzo wakanyanya déjà vu, asi musika haugone kuenderera "kuregeredza" kupetwa kwakapetwa kwehukuru hwekutapa mushure meGunyana.
Maererano netsvagiridzo yeFed, kuderera kwaizokwidza makore gumi egoho reUS bond nezvikamu makumi matanhatu pakufamba kwegore, zvakaenzana nehwerengedzo yezvikamu zviviri kusvika zvitatu makumi maviri neshanu.
NaPowell achidzokorora danho rake re “hawkish rate hike”, kunyangwe kuchingosara matatu kukwira kwemitengo munaGunyana, Mbudzi naZvita, asi mumhedzisiro yekupindirana kwekaviri kukurumidza shrinkage uye kukwira kwemitengo, isu tinotarisira iyo 10-year US bond. goho rinogona kupaza nepamusoro pepamusoro pe3.5% gare gare gore rino, mitengo yembavha inotya kushandisa mudenderedzwa idzva rematambudziko makuru.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-13-2022