75bp Kuwedzera, Mortgage Interest Rates Inoderera! Sei musika wakatora "rate-cut" script?
08/08/2022
Iyo Federal Reserve Inotendeuka Kurerutsa
Federal Reserve yakazivisa pamusangano weChikunguru Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kuti mubereko ucharamba uchikwidzwa kusvika makumi manomwe neshanu, zvichikwidza mari yemubatanidzwa kusvika pa2.25% -2.5%.
Chaive chiitiko chaizivikanwa sezvo maStock eUS akakwira uye goho rePfuma yakadonha sezvo 75 bp yakauya.Ndizvozvo, yaive nyaya yakafanana pamisangano yaMay naJune FOMC.
Iyi ndiyo nguva yekutanga mumakore makumi mana apfuura iyo Fed yakasimudza mazinga ne 75 bp mumutsara.Zvakanaka kutaura kuti Fed yanga ine hukasha zvakakwana, asi nei musika wakatora "Rate-Cut" script?
Paiva nezvikonzero zviviri zvikuru zvemaitiro akanaka emusika.Imwe ndeyokuti chiyero chekusimudza chakanga chiri mukati mekutarisira - kubvumirana kwekukwira kwe75bp kwave kwave kuripo pamberi pemusangano.Chimwe chikonzero ndechekuti Fed Chairman Powell akataura pamusangano wevatori venhau mushure memusangano: "zvingangove zvakakodzera kudzikisa kukurumidza kwekuwedzera kwechiyero".
Powell: Zvingangove zvakakodzera kudzikisa nhanho yekuwedzera.
Kungotaurwa kwe "zvichida kunonotsa nhanho kana kuwedzera" kwaive kwakaringana kumisa kunakidzwa mumisika, iyo yaitoita seyaitenderera 75bp kusimuka se "25bp yekucheka".
Nekutarisira kwakasimba kwekutonga, Fed yakatiratidza kuti tarisiro yakakosha zvakanyanya kupfuura chokwadi zvakare.
Misika yakada kudzoreredza kosi zuva rinotevera mushure memusangano zvichibva pane zvakambotaurwa, uye zvinotarisirwa neFed zvinogona kungokanganisa misika yenguva pfupi.
Kwakabva:https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Kusvika pari zvino, zvisinei, musika hausati waratidza chero zviratidzo zvekutendeuka, uye zvinotarisirwa zvekukwira zvishoma nezvishoma zvinoita sekunge dudziro ine musoro.
Pane Kuderera Kwemari?
Chigadzirwa chenyika, chiyero chemari yekushandisa pazvinhu nemasevhisi muhupfumi hwese, chakadonha pamwero wepagore we0.9%, Dhipatimendi reCommerce rakati neChina.
Chibvumirano ichi chinotevera kudzikira kwe1.6% mumabasa ehupfumi mumwedzi mitatu yekutanga yegore uye zvinoreva kuti US inogona kunge iri mukuderera kwehunyanzvi - zvikamu zviviri muzvina zvekudonha kweGDP gore rino.
MuUnited States, boka riri mukati meNBER iro rinonyatso kufona pakudzikira iBusiness Cycle Dating Committee.Asi sarudzo dzekomiti dzinowanzouya nekunonoka.(Muna 2020, komiti haina kuzivisa kudzikira kudzamara hupfumi hwadzikira uye vanhu vanosvika miriyoni makumi maviri nevaviri vanga vasingashande kwemwedzi yakawanda.)
Iyo NBER inonyanya kutarisana nebasa uye inoita senge musika webasa muUS wakatsvuka kupisa.White House, iyo yanga ichidzosera kumashure pfungwa yekuti kune kudzikira, yakataura kuti kushaikwa kwemabasa kwakaderera kwe3.6%, kunyangwe iyo Dhipatimendi reCommerce rakaona kuti hupfumi hwaderera zvikamu zviviri zvekupedzisira.
Zvakadaro, pane kupokana kushoma kuti hupfumi huri kuderera, uye kufanotaura kwemusika kwekukwira kwemitengo gore rino kwatanga kudonha, nepo tarisiro yekuderedzwa kwemitengo yakawedzera.
Wall Street inotarisira kuti mitengo inosvika 3.25% pakupera kwegore, izvo zvinoreva kuti matatu asara ekuwedzera kwegore rino haazopfuuri 90 bp zvachose.
Iyo Fed inoita sekunge ichafanirwa kufunga nezvekusiya imwe hombe kukwira kwemitengo.
Mari yemortgage ichadzika here?
Iyo 10-year Treasury goho yakadonha kubva ku2.7% kusvika 2.658%, yakaderera kubva muna Kubvumbi, sezvo tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yakaramba ichidonha gore rino.
Muyero wekupedzisira pamakumi matatu-yegore remba wakadzokera ku5.3% (Freddie Mac)
Sezvazviri zvinhu, mwero wembangi waratidza kuderera, uye pamwe pacho yepamusoro pacho yaenda.
Musika unofanotaura kubva pari zvino, iyo Fed ingangoita nhanho yekutevera kukwira kweyero ichave inotevera:
Kukwira kwe50bp munaGunyana, inoperekedzwa nekuderera kwemaitiro;
Kukwira kwe25bp munaNovember;
Kukwira kwe25bp munaDecember uye ipapo mitengo ichawira pasi gore rinouya.
Mune mamwe mazwi, Fed inogona kutanga kunonoka kukwira kwechimbadzo kutanga kwaSeptember, asi kukurumidza kwekuwedzera kunotevera kunoenderana nedata muna Chikunguru naNyamavhuvhu.
Asi kana inflation inflation ikasadzika zvakanyanya, njodzi yekuderera kwehupfumi inogona kutungamirira Fed kukwidza mhindu kurwisa inflation, uye mitero yembavha inotarisirwa kudonha zvakanyanya.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Aug-07-2022