Usanyengerwa neGDP!Kana kudzikira kusingadzivisike muna 2023, iyo Fed ichacheka mitengo here?Mari dzemhindu dzichaenda kupi?
11/07/2022
Musi waGumiguru 27, data yeGDP yekota yechitatu yakaburitswa.
Chikamu chechitatu cheGDP chakasimuka chakasimba 2.6% gore-pamusoro-gore, izvo zvisina kungopfuura zvinotarisirwa zvemusika zve 2.4%, asiwo zvakagumisa "technical recession" yapfuura - zvikamu zviviri zvakatevedzana zvekuwedzera kweGDP kwakashata muhafu yekutanga yegore.
GDP yakashanduka kubva kune yakaipa kuenda kune yakanaka nharaunda, zvichireva kuti kukwira kweFed kukwira kwemhindu kwaisava kutyisidzira kwekusimudzira hupfumi.
Mumwe anogona kufunga kuti data yakanaka yehupfumi inowanzova chiratidzo chokuti Fed icharamba ichisimudza zvikwereti zvehasha, asi misika haina kupindura nguva dzose.
Iyi data haina kubvisa zvinotarisirwa zve 75 nheyo yepamusoro munaNovember, asi yakawedzera tarisiro ye50 nheyo yepamusoro (yekutanga kuderera kwehuwandu hwekuwedzera) pamusangano waDecember.
Chikonzero ndechekuti iyi inoita seyakanaka GDP data izere ne "feint" maererano nechimiro chakasarudzika.
Ko "feint" yaive sei GDP muchikamu chechitatu?
Sezvatinoona, mashandisiro ekushandisa ega ndicho chikamu chikuru chehupfumi hweUS, avhareji ye60% yeGDP, uye ndiyo "musana" wekukura kwehupfumi hweUS.
Nekudaro, kumwe kudzikira kwechikamu cheGDP chakaverengerwa nekushandisa kwemunhu muchikamu chechitatu kunomiririra kuenderera mberi kwekushomeka kwembiru yekukura kwehupfumi uye kunoonekwa nevakawanda sechiratidzo chekuderera kwehupfumi.
Pamusoro pezvo, kukura kwezvimwe zvidiki-diki kwakadererawo.Saka, ndiani ari kutsigira kukura kwehupfumi muchikamu chechitatu?
Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwakapa 2.77% mukukura kweGDP mukota yechitatu, saka zvinogona kutaurwa kuti kukura kweGDP muchikamu chechitatu kwakada kutsigirwa nekutengesa kunze kwenyika "ndoga".
Chikonzero cheizvi ndechekuti US yakatumira rekodhi huwandu hwemafuta, gasi uye zvombo kuEurope nekuda kwekunetsana kuri kuitika kweRussia-Ukraine.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinowanzofunga kuti chiitiko ichi ndechenguva pfupi uye hachizorambira munzvimbo dziri kuuya.
Iyi inokatyamadza GDP nhamba ingangove "flashback" isati yaderera.
Ko Fed ichakona riini?
Zvinoenderana neazvino modhi data kubva kuBloomberg, mukana wekuderera kwemari mumwedzi gumi nemiviri inotevera inoshamisa 100%.
Mufananidzo Kunobva: Bloomberg
Wedzera kune icho chokwadi chekuti maitiro akasiyana-siyana mumwedzi mitatu uye gumi-gore reUS bond goho, ayo anoonekwa sechiratidzo chekuderera kwehupfumi, ari kuwedzera, uye kutya kuderera zvakare kwave kubata pamusika.
Zvichipesana nemamiriro ezvinhu aya, kukwira kwemitengo yemhindu kunomanikidzwa kupinda mudambudziko - iyo Fed ichacheka mitengo muchiitiko chekuderera?
Muchokwadi, mukudonha kuna kwemakore makumi matatu apfuura, Fed yakagadzirisa mhindu mune imwe nzira.
Nekuti kudzikira kwemari kunowanzo kuperekedzwa nekushaikwa kwemabasa uye kuderera kwekuda kwevatengi, Fed inowanzotanga kucheka mitengo yemwedzi mitatu kusvika mitanhatu mushure memubereko wepamusoro mukuyedza kusimudzira hupfumi.
Kunyange zvazvo Fed inogona kusada kushandura mafambiro nekukurumidza uye kuderedza mitengo, kana kuderera kwehupfumi kuchienderera mberi kwegore rinotevera, Fed ingangosarudza mukati memwedzi mitanhatu yemitengo inosvika kukosha kwayo kwekupedzisira kumisa kusimudza kana kudzikisa mitengo yekudzikamisa hupfumi.
Mbereko ichadonha rinhi?
Mumakore makumi matatu apfuura, mitengo yembavha yakaderera pose apo hupfumi hwapinda mukuderera.
Zvisinei, apo Fed inoderedza mhindu yemari, mitero yembavha kazhinji haiwa zvakare nokukurumidza.
Mumakore mana ekupedzisira ekuderera, makore makumi matatu emitengo yembavha yakaderera neavhareji ingangoita 1% mukati megore nehafu yekutanga kuderera.
Kugona kwevanotenga dzimba pari zvino kwakadzikira, asi kune vakawanda vangangotenga vatengi, kudzikira kwakanyanya kungangounza njodzi yekurasikirwa nebasa kana mihoro yakaderera, zvichiwedzera kugona.
Iyo 75 base point rate yakakwira munaNovember yakanga isingaite nharo, uye mubvunzo mukuru ndewekuti Fed icharatidza "taper" muna Zvita.
Kana iyo Fed ikaratidza kuderera kwehuwandu hwekukwira gare gare gore rino, mitero yembavha ichatorawo kufema panguva iyoyo.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Nov-08-2022