Inguva yakareba sei mibairo yepamusoro ichagara mushure mekupera kwekukwira kwemitengo?
01/20/2023
Inflation inoramba ichitonhora!Kupera kweNguva yeAggressive Rate Hikes
Mazuva ehhasha dzekukwira apera - data yazvino yakaburitswa neCPI yaive nani pane zvaitarisirwa.
Musi waNdira 12, Bureau of Labor Statistics data yakaratidza kuti US CPI yakakura zvishoma nezvishoma ye6.5% muna Zvita 2022, ichidzika kubva pa7.1% muna Mbudzi uye pazasi pepamusoro pe9.1% muna Chikumi.
Iyo Consumer Price Index yakadzikira gore negore kumwedzi wechitanhatu wakateedzana, ichisvika padanho rayo rakaderera kubva muna Gumiguru 2021, uye yanga isina kunaka gore-pagore kekutanga mumakore matatu.
Iyi ndiyo yekupedzisira inowanikwa data kubva kuCPI pamberi peFed kuzivisa chisarudzo chayo chekusimudzira mubereko musi waFebruary 1. Pamwe chete nechepasi-kupfuura-inotarisirwa data kubva kumwedzi yapfuura, vanoratidza kuti inflation muU. .
Iyi data inotarisirwa kuti iite kuti Fed inonoke kukurumidza kwehuwandu hwekukwira zvakare: Ikozvino inotarisirwa yemusika yemusangano unotevera weFed kukwidza mitero ne25 nheyo dzepamusoro ndeyechokwadi kupfuura 93%!
Mufananidzo kunobva: CME FedWatch Tool
Zvinogona kutaurwa kuti kukwira kwemakumi maviri neshanu kwechiyero muna Kukadzi kwakasimbiswa, zvinoreva kuti nguva yekukwira kwemitengo yapera!
Uye chiyero chakabatanidzwa chinokwira munaFebruary naKurume chinotarisirwa kunge chiri pasi pemakumi mashanu mapoinzi, zvichiratidza kuti zvinogoneka kuti Fed haizokwidza mitengo munaKurume uye kuti chiyero chekukwira chakapinda zviri pamutemo mukuverenga!
Kuderera kweinflation kuchawedzerawo!
Yakaputsika ne-sub-item, kuderera kweCPI muna Zvita kwainyanya kukonzerwa nekudonha kwemitengo yepeturu uye kuenderera mberi kwekudzikira kwemitengo yezvinhu.
Nekudaro, kune dzimba, mutyairi mukuru weiyo core services inflation, chiyero chekukura kwemitengo yekurenda haisati yaratidza kuderera kwakakosha muna Zvita.
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kudzikira kwerendi hakusati kwatapurirwa kuCPI uye kunozotungamira kuderera kweinflation.
Nekune rimwe divi, mitengo yesimba isina kusimba, kudzikira kwemitengo yezvinhu, uye kukanganisa kwehwaro hwepamusoro muna 2022 kunofanirwa kutungamira mukudzikira kwepamusoro kunotevera inflation.
Uyezve, kuderera kwehupfumi kwave kwakaoma kudzivirira sezvo Federal Reserve yakasarudza kurwisa inflation nekuderedza kukura kwehupfumi.
Munguva ichangopfuura, zviratidzo zvakawanda zvakaratidza kuderera kwekuita kwehupfumi hweUnited States - kutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kunze kwenyika kwakawira munaNovember kubva munaOctober, uye kutengesa kwekutengesa, kugadzirwa kwekugadzira uye kutengesa kweimba kwakadererawo.
Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kwazvino kubva kuGoldman Sachs, CPI inogona kudzikira kusvika pasi pe5% gore-pa-gore pakupera kwekota yekutanga pasi pesimba rezvinhu zviri pamusoro, nepo inogona kudonha kusvika pa3% ne kupera kwechikamu chechipiri.
Inguva yakareba sei mibairo yakakwirira ichagara mushure mekukwira kwemhindu?
A 25 base point rate kukwira munaFebruary yatove patafura, uye Fed ichavawo nemabasa maviri uye inflation data seti (01/2023, 02/2023) inowanikwa pamusangano weMarch rate.
Kana mishumo iyi ichiratidza kuti kukura kwebasa kunoramba kuchiderera (pasi pe300,000 mabasa matsva asiri ekurima) uye inflation ichienderera mberi ichidzikira, Fed ingangomira kukwidza mitengo mushure meiyo 25 basis point rate kukwira munaKurume, ichisiya mitengo ichikwira kusvika pa5%. .
2023 FOMC Musangano Karenda
Zvisinei, kuti tidzivise zvidzidzo zvema1970, apo mibairo yakanga isina kukwidzwa asi yakaderedzwa ndokuzokwidzwa zvakare, zvichiita kuti mutemo uchinjike, vakuru vakuru veFed vakabvumirana kuti pashure pokumira kwekuwedzera kwemitengo, mibairo inofanira kuitwa pamwero mukuru. kwekanguva kusvikira pane kuderera kukuru kwekukwira kwemitengo kusati kwaitwa chiyero.
Mukuru weFed Daley akabva ataura kuti "zvine musoro kubata mubereko wepamusoro kwemwedzi gumi neimwe".
Saka kana iyo Fed ikasakwidza mitengo zvakare munaKurume, isu tichaona kuderedzwa kwechiyero kutanga kwa2024.
Inguva yakareba sei mibairo yakakwirira ichagara mushure mekunge kukwidzwa kwemitengo kwapera?
Parizvino, iyo Fed yakatanga kuderedza zvishoma nezvishoma mubereko wekuwedzera kukurumidza, uye kwakangove nekumwe chete kwakadai kudzikiswa kwemitengo yekukwira kubva ku1990 (1994-1995).
Kubva munhoroondo dzenhoroondo, goho reUS bond rakaderera zvakanyanya 3-6 mwedzi mushure mekukwira kweFed pamwe nekuderedzwa kwechibereko.
Mune mamwe mazwi: Isu tinogona kuona kuderera kukuru kwemitengo yembanje muhafu yekutanga yegore rino.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-21-2023