Is Inflation As Fierce As A Tiger?
It May Not Be As Scary As You Think
06/15/2022
Inflation t kanda mvura inotonhora zvakare!CPI Inodarika Zvinotarisirwa
Anenge masvondo maviri apfuura, mushure mekusunungurwa kwePCE yakaderera-kupfuura-inotarisirwa (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) munaEpril, misika yakanga yakanaka.Zvinotendwa kuti kune zviratidzo zvekutanga zvekukwira kwepamusoro uye vanhu vakatanga kutarisira kana data inotevera yeCPI inogona kushamisa, zvakare.
Nekudaro, pamberi peChishanu, JP Morgan akataura kuti iyo inotevera CPI data yaizopfuura zvinotarisirwa nemusika.Chirevo ichi chakaputsa fungidziro dzemusika nezvekutonhodza inflation.
US stocks yakawira zvakanyanya panhau, uye 10-year Treasury goho rakaramba richikwira, richityora 3%.
Zvinotoshamisa ndezvokuti, Dhipatimendi reVashandi rakataura neChishanu kuti nhamba yemitengo yevatengi yakakwira ne8.6 muzana muna Chivabvu kubva pagore rapfuura, iyo yakatonyanya kupfuura iyo 8.3 muzana iyo musika waitarisira.
Mashoko akakwirira-kupfuura-aitarisirwa akaparadza zvachose zviroto zvokuti inflation inogona kudzoka shure pakati pegore.
Musika wekutengesa wakawira mu "Black Friday", uye 10-year treasury goho yakakwira kusvika 3.1%.
Musangano wemwedzi uno pamusoro pechiyero uchaitwa munaJune 14, vakuru veFed vakati muhurukuro huru yekupedzisira vasati vapinda munguva yakanyarara kuti kana mibairo icharamba ichikwira ne50 basis points munaSeptember ichaenderana nekushanda kweinflation data.
Chicagoland data yakaratidza 41.6% mukana weiyo yakatsigirwa 50 base base point rate kukwira munaGunyana mushure mekuburitswa kweinflation data.Nekudaro, pane kunyange 48.5 muzana mukana weiyo 75 hwaro hwekuwedzera pane imwe yemisangano mitatu inotevera.
Musika wacho wakada kusarudza kuti zvisinei nematanho mazhinji akatorwa neFed, inflation inflation iri kuramba ichidzika midzi uye ichiramba ichikwira: kuwedzera kupenga kuri kuuya.
Asi izvi zvichave zvakadaro here?Nei inflation yakasindimara kudai pamberi pekuomesera kwakadai?
Tariro iri kutanga zvishoma nezvishoma
Nhamba yakakosha yekukwira kwemitengo iri kufuratirwa nevanhu vazhinji: Kunyangwe mutemo wekusimbisa mari wakwidza mitengo yakakwira, CPI yakakosha yakadzokera kumashure kwemwedzi miviri yakatevedzana.
CPI yakakosha indekisi yemutengo wevatengi isingabatanidzi mitengo yezvokudya uye simba.Icho chiratidzo chechokwadi chemashandiro ari kuita hupfumi sezvo isingasanganisire mitengo yezvinhu yakakwira kwenguva pfupi nekuda kwezvikonzero zvekupa.
Kukwira kwese kweCPI kunonyanya kutungamirwa nekuwedzera kwesimba uye mitengo yezvokudya, ndicho chikonzero chikuru nei CPI yakakosha yakasiya zvakanyanya kubva mukukwira kwemitengo.
Kuchinja kunogona kunge kuri kuuya
Kubva pakutanga kwegore rino, mhirizhonga yeRussia-Ukraine yakakonzera kuwedzera kwesimba uye mitengo yezvokudya;kupihwa kwezvinhu zvakabikwa uye zvepakati zvinhu zvinodiwa pakugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri muUS pasi pedenda rinogara richiitika muChina hakuna kukwana, uye kushanduka kwekuchinja kwezvinhu kwakonzera kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu.
Nekudaro, hondo haizombove iyo huru toni, uye kushomeka kwekupa kwakakonzerwa nedenda kuri kupora zvishoma nezvishoma, uye maitiro emitengo kwenguva refu anozopedzisira adzokera munzira chaiyo.
Pamusoro pezvo, manejimendi eBiden achangotanga kutora danho rekudzikisa mutero kuChina.Mitengo uye inflation ndizvo chaizvo nyaya dzakakosha dzinoratidza kuti vavhoti vachavhota sei musarudzo dzepakati petemu, uye hutongi hweBiden, huri kuyedza kudzora inflation nemazvo, hungangobvisa zvimwe, kunyangwe yese mitero yakatemerwa China.
Ikozvino kukwirira kwekukwira kwemitengo kunodzorwa kwete chete nekusimbisa mutemo wezvemari, asiwo nekudzikisa mitero yemitengo, iyo inogona kuderedza zvakanyanya mari yekurarama uye nokudaro kudzvanyirira kukwira kwemitengo.Zvimwe zvidzidzo zvinoratidza kuti kubviswa kwemamwe mitero kuchaunza kukura kweCPI kusvika ku3.4 muzana.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti Fed ichawana imwe nzvimbo yemitemo, uye Fed ichazoisawo mabhureki ekusimbisa kana paine kuderera kweinflation kwakajeka.
Pakazere, kunyangwe inflation uye mwero tarisiro yekukwira zvisina tariro, hapana chikonzero chekunyanya kusava netariro.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti mushure mekusava netariro kwemusika kusunungurwa, nguva yakaipisisa inogona kunge yapfuura.
Zvinhu zvinogara zvichitowedzera kuipa zvisati zvanaka.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Jun-17-2022