Yasvika nguva yeRekuongororatiye Tarisiro yeKuderera
07/13/2022
Kuchinja kukuru munguva pfupi
Sezvo Federal Reserve inoomesa mutemo wezvemari kurwisa inflation yakaipisisa mumakore makumi mana, hupfumi hweUS hwave kumawere.
Vanodyara mari vave kutya kuderera zvakanyanya kudarika inflation musvondo rapfuura.
Mazhinji mabhanga makuru eWall Street akapa yambiro yekuderera kwehupfumi, uye Wells Fargo akatotaura kuti United States yawira mukuderera.
Sezvo musika wekutengesa wakawedzera kuderera kwayo, musika webhondi wakakwira kumusoro pamwe chete, uye index yemadhora yakarova makore makumi maviri epamusoro, kutengeserana pamusoro pezvaitarisirwa kuderera kwehupfumi.
Nekutanga kwekuderera kwehupfumi, mabhizimisi uye hupfumi huri kutarisana nekuwedzera kudzvinyirira;nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinotenda kuti musika wevashandi uri kurasika, ukuwo data remari isiri yepurazi neChishanu inogona kukonzera kusagadzikana kwemusika.
Nekudaro, goho reUS bond rakasvetukira kumashure pamusoro pe3% mushure meChishanu, uye mukana wekukwira kwemakumi manomwe neshanu muna Chikunguru wakakwira kusvika pa92.4%.
Zvese nekuti iyi data iri kure nekuve isina kusimba sezvaitarisirwa nevanhu vazhinji,
asi zvinoratidzika kunge zvakanaka.
Ungaita sei nzwisisa report iyi ?
Dhipatimendi reVashandi rakashuma neChishanu kuti 372,000 mabasa matsva akagadzirwa muna Chikumi nepo huwandu hwekushaikwa hwakabata 3.6 muzana, pakati pemitengo yakaderera zvachose.
Saka nei chirevo ichi chakachinja mamiriro emusika munguva pfupi?Zvakakwezva sei pfungwa huru kubva kumapato ese?
Tinoziva kuti basa rehuviri reFed nderekuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemitengo uye kuve nechokwadi chekushanda kwakanyanya, saka mitemo yeFed yave ichiedza kuenzanisa pakati pe "inflation" uye "huwandu hwekushaya basa".
Zvisinei, nekukwira kwemari ikozvino kwakanyanyisa, chinonyanya kukosha chemutemo weFed ndechekuderedza inflation pamutengo wemabasa uye kukura kune imwe nzvimbo.
Kunyangwe "chiyero chekushaikwa kwemabasa" chiri kunetseka kukuru kweFed, chiratidzo chehupfumi chiri kuderera.Zvinotora nguva kuti musika webasa uise mwero wekushaikwa kwemabasa.Naizvozvo, mari yekubhadhara isiri yepurazi inoonekwa seinotungamira kushaikwa kwemabasa zviratidzo uye inoratidza kuti hupfumi huri kuenda sei kune imwe nhanho.
Sezvakataurwa muzvinyorwa zvakapfuura, musika uri munzvimbo iyo yakanaka ecodata nomic nhau yakaenzana neakaipa.Mashoko asiri epapurazi haapfuuri tarisiro yedu izvo zvinoratidza kuti hupfumi hwenyika hausi kudzokera shure mukuderera nekuda kwekuomeswa kwemafuta;zvisinei, mhedzisiro yakananga ndeyekuti Iyo Fed ichave isina hanya mukusimudza mhindu.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kune nhamba inokosha pakati pevasiri vepurazi rekubhadhara uye chiyero chekushayikwa kwemabasa: apo mitero isiri yepurazi inoramba iri pamusoro pe200,000, misika yevashandi inofungidzirwa yakasimba zvikuru.
Mari yekubhadhara isiri yepurazi yanga iri pamusoro peiyo 200,000 level kubva 2021, ichipa iyo Fed ushingi hwekuramba ichikwidza mitengo zvine hukasha.
Saka kana tikatarisa iyi data mumwedzi mishomanana inotevera, chero chinhu chiri pamusoro pe200,000 chinosiya pasina mubvunzo kuti Fed ichachinja pfungwa dzayo: Fed inofunga kuti ikozvino inogona kufuratira misika yeBasa uye kuisa pfungwa dzayo dzose pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo.
Tarisiro of the r ecession inogona kunge iri "kukasira"
Mushure mokunge data yakabudiswa pamitero isiri yepurazi, US stocks negoridhe yakasimuka zvishoma, asi dhora rakadonha zvishoma.
Nekudaro, panguva iyi yakaoma, pakanga paine kushanduka kwemusika kusingaenderane nedata rakakosha kudaro.
Chii chiri shure kweizvi chaizvoizvo mutambo pakati pe "recession fears recede" uye "more hawkish Fed", uye misika haina kugadzikana sezvainoratidzika, asi izere nemakwikwi.
A 75 base point rate kukwira mwedzi uno (Chikunguru 28) inokandwa padombo, uye musika webasa wakasimba wakatsigira Fed kuti iwedzere matanho ehusterity.
Nepo kutengeserana kwekare kwemusika pane tarisiro yekudzikira kungave "nguva isati yakwana", zviri pachena kuti iyo isiri yepurazi payroll data yakadzikamisa kutya kwevanhu kwekuderera kwehupfumi kwenguva.Kunyange zvazvo hupfumi hwakaratidza zviratidzo zvekuderera, hurukuro dzose pamusoro pekuderera kwehupfumi ikozvino nguva isati yakwana uye hairerutsi kutya kwekuwedzera kukwira kwemazinga neFed.
Kubhejera kwemusika paFed rate kukwira kuri kutanga kukwira, nekufanotaura kwechiyero kusvetuka pamusoro pe3.6 muzana muchikamu chekutanga chegore rinouya.
Kuderera kwehupfumi kwekare kunogona kunge kuri kunyevera kwenhema, asi Fed ichiri kufanira kuve nehanya nekuderera kwehupfumi uye kusimba kwemamiriro emari.
Zvichida misika ichamira kutya chete kana FED yatanga kutya.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-16-2022