Kutaura kwaPowell kwemaminetsi masere kwakatyisa
Wall Street yese?
09/02/2022
Chii chakavanzika chekutaura uku?
Musangano wepagore weJackson Hole unozivikanwa mumatunhu se "musangano wepagore wemabhanga makuru epasi rose", musangano wepagore wemabhanga makuru epasirese kuti vakurukure nezvegwaro remari, asi zvakare sechinyakare vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika vepasi rose vanoratidza kukosha kwegwaro remari "mhepo. vane" remangwana.
Chii chiri kunyanya kunetseka nevanoisa mari pamusangano uyu wepagore webhanga guru muJackson Hole?Pasina kupokana, kutaura kwaPowell ndiko kunonyanya kukosha.
Federal Reserve Sachigaro Powell akataura pamusoro penyaya ye "monetary policy uye mutengo kugadzikana", mazwi 1300 chete, asingasviki maminetsi gumi ekutaura, mazwi akaita kuti musika wose utange masaisai makuru.
Iyi ndiyo hurukuro yaPowell yekutanga kubva pamusangano weFOMC mukupera kwaJuly, uye nheyo yekutaura kwake panguva ino chaizvoizvo mazwi maviri - kuderera kwemari.
Takapfupikisa zvinyorwa zvakakosha sezvinotevera.
1. Inflation data yaJuly yakavandudzwa zvisingashamisi, inflation mamiriro ezvinhu anoramba akaomeswa, uye Fed Reserve haizoregi kukwidza mazinga kusvika kumiganhu inorambidza.
Kudzikisira inflation kungangoda kuchengetedza mari yakasimba kwenguva yakati, Powell haabvumi kuti musika uri kuita mitengo mukuderedzwa kwegore rinouya.
Powell akasimbisa kuti kutonga zvinotarisirwa kukwira kwemitengo kwakakosha uye akadzokorora kuti nhanho yekukwira kwemitengo inogona kuderera pane imwe nguva mune ramangwana.
Chii chinonzi "restricting level?"Izvi zvakatove zvataurwa nevakuru vakuru veFed: chiyero chekudzivirira chichava "pamusoro pe3%.
Ikozvino Federal Reserve policy rate ndeye 2.25% kusvika 2.5%.Mune mamwe mazwi, kuti isvike pamwero weiyo inorambidza mwero, iyo Fed ichasimudza mibairo neinenge imwe makumi manomwe neshanu mapoinzi.
Muzvose, Powell akadzokorora nenzira isati yamboitika yeHawkish kuti "inflation haina kumira, kukwira kwemitengo hakumire" uye akanyevera kuti mutemo wemari haufanirwe kurerutswa nekukurumidza.
Powell sehawkish, nei masheya eUS achitya kudonha?
Powell akapedza maminetsi masere chete ekutaura kwake achibvisa zvachose mamiriro emisika yeUS kubva muna Chikumi.
Muchokwadi, mazwi aPowell haana kunyanya kusiyana nezvaakambotaura, asi anonyanya kusimba mumafungiro uye inzwi rakasimba.
Saka chii chakonzera kuvhunduka kwakanyanya kudaro mumisika yemari?
Kuitwa kwemusika mushure mekuwedzera kwehuwandu hweJuly kunosiya pasina mubvunzo kuti kutarisira kweFed kwakakundikana.Iko mukana wekunonotsa kukwira kwemitengo yeramangwana kwaisa 75 basis point kukwira pasina.
Musika uyu une tarisiro yakawandisa, asi chero chirevo chaPowell chisina kujeka zvakakwana chinodudzirwa sechishuwo, uye kunyangwe manheru emusangano, zvinoita sekunge paine tarisiro isina musoro yekuti rhetoric yeFed ichachinja.
Nekudaro, kutaura kwaPowell mumusangano kwakamutsa musika zvachose, uye kwakaparadza zvese zvaimboitika zvisingaite.
Uye kune kuwedzera kukura kwekuziva kuti Fed haizogadziri maitiro ayo ezvino hawkish kusvikira yazadzisa chinangwa chayo chekurwisa inflation uye kuti mari yepamusoro-soro inogona kuchengetedzwa kwenguva yakareba, panzvimbo peiyo yakambofungidzirwa chiyero chekucheka chinogona kutanga mu pakati pegore rinouya.
Iko mukana weSeptember 75 hwaro hwemapoinzi hunokwira
Mushure memusangano, goho rehomwe yeTreasury yemakore gumi yaive pamusoro pe3%, uye kudzoserwa kwegoho rehomwe yeTreasury yemakore maviri kusvika gumi kwakadzika, paine mukana wekuwedzera kwemakumi manomwe neshanu munaGunyana kukwira kusvika pa61% kubva. 47% yapfuura.
Mufananidzo: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Pazuva remusangano, pakarepo pamberi pekutaura kwaPowell, Dhipatimendi reCommerce rakazivisa kuti PCE mutengo wemari yekushandiswa kwemunhu oga yakasimuka 6.3% gore negore muna July, pasi pe6.8% inotarisirwa muna June.
Kunyange zvazvo data yePCE ichiratidza kuenzanisa mukukura kwemutengo, mukana we75 nheyo yepamusoro yekuwedzera munaSeptember haifaniri kuderedzwa.
Izvi zvimwe nekuti Powell akaramba achisimbisa mukutaura kwake kuti nguva isati yakwana kugumisa kuti "inflation yaderera" zvichienderana nemwedzi mishoma yedata.
Chechipiri, hupfumi hunoramba hwakasimba sezvo GDP uye data yebasa yakaramba ichivandudzwa kumusoro, kuderedza kutya kwemusika kwekuderera.
Mufananidzo: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/revision-shows-mild-us-economic-contraction-second-quarter-2022-08-25/
Mushure memusangano uyu, panogona kunge paine shanduko munzira iyo zvinotarisirwa zvinonangidzirwa kuFed policy.
"Sarudzo pamusangano waSeptember ichaenderana nedata rese uye maonero ehupfumi," kana iri nyaya yekusagadzikana kwehupfumi uye inflation, "taura zvishoma uye tarisa zvakanyanya" inogona kunge iri sarudzo iri nani yeFederal Reserve.
Misika yakanyanyisa kutsauswa ikozvino kupfuura chero nguva gore rino, uye kutenderera kwekupedzisira kwebasa uye inflation data pamberi pemusangano weSeptember chiyero ichave yakakosha.
Isu tinogona chete kumirira uye kuona pane iyi data uye kana ichigona kuzunungusa iyo yakatemerwa 75 hwaro hwenheyo yekukwira munaGunyana.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-03-2022