Iyo Art yeKutarisira Kutarisira:
Iyo Fed's akasiyana "Tricks"
05/10/2022
"Ndinoziva kuti unofunga kuti unonzwisisa zvawafunga ndataura asi handina chokwadi chekuti unoona kuti zvawanzwa handizvo zvandaireva."– Alan Greenspan
Pane imwe nguva, Sachigaro weFederal Reserve Alan Greenspan akaita dudziro yemutemo wemari kuita mutambo wekufungidzira.
Kungofamba kudiki kwese kwemambo wehupfumi uyu kwazova chiyereso cheupfumi hwenyika panguva iyoyo.
Nekudaro, kubuda kweiyo Subprime mortgage dambudziko haina kungorova hupfumi hweUS, asi zvakare ita kuti musika unzwe kusagutsikana zvakanyanya neFed yekufungidzira mutambo.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, mutsva weFederal Reserve Sachigaro Berknan akadzidza kubva mukukanganisa uku uye zvishoma nezvishoma akatanga kutora nzira ye "tarisiro yekutarisira" uye kuramba achivandudza.
Parizvino, kana iri seti yekutarisira manejimendi maitiro, iyo Fed yakapotsa yatamba zvakakwana.
NeChitatu, iyo Fed yakazivisa yazvino chiyero chemubereko, ichizivisa 50-basis point rate kukwira, uye ichatanga kudzikisa chiyero chayo muna Chikumi.
Kune veFed's yakasimba kusimbisa mutemo, mhinduro yemusika inoita kunge ine tariro, nepfungwa yekuti musika unoiswa munhau dzakaipa.
Iyo S&P 500 yakarova yakakura kwazvo-yezuva rimwe muzana kuwana mune rinenge gore, uye gumi-gore reUS bond rakadonha zvakare mushure mekurova 3%, kamwe pasi kusvika 2.91%.
Zvinoenderana nepfungwa yakajairika, iyo Fed yakazivisa kuwedzera kweyero, iyo yaive yekusimbisa mari, musika wekutengesa waizove nekuderera kwakati, uye zvine musoro kuti mabhondi eUS anofanirawo kusimuka mukupindura.Zvisinei, nei pane kuita kunopesana nekariro?
Izvi zvinodaro nekuti musika wakatemerwa mutengo muzviito zveFed (Mutengo-mu) uye wakaita mhinduro yekutanga.Zvese nekuda kweFed's kutarisira manejimendi - vanoita misangano yepamwedzi yemubereko isati yakwira.Pamberi pemusangano, vanotaurirana kakawanda uye kazhinji nemusika kuti vataure zvinotarisirwa zvehupfumi, zvichiita kuti misika igamuchire kuchinja kwemari yemari.
Muchokwadi, pakupera kwegore rapfuura, mushure mekunge Sachigaro weFed Powell agadzwazve, akachinja maitiro ake ekare enjiva uye akave nehasha.
Pasi pe "tarisiro" yeFed, tarisiro yemusika yakashanduka kubva pakuva nechibvumirano chekuti pachava nekukwira kwemitengo, uye yakawedzera kubva pamakumi maviri neshanu mapoinzi kusvika makumi mashanu.Nekupesvedzerwa neanogara achiita hawkish, kukwira kweruvengo kwakatozoshanduka kusvika pamakumi manomwe neshanu.Pakupedzisira, "mapato enjiva" eFed akakwidza mitero ne50 basis points.
Zvichienzaniswa neapfuura makumi maviri neshanu mapoinzi, mapoinzi makumi mashanu pamwe nechirongwa chiri kuuya chekudzikisa tafura pasina mubvunzo zvine hukasha.Pakupedzisira, mhedzisiro yakava "mukati mezvaitarisirwa" nekuti Fed yakanga yaita tarisiro yemakumi manomwe neshanu.
Pamusoro pezvo, kutaura kwaPowell kwakabvisawo mukana wekuwedzera kukwira kwemitengo, zvichifambisa kuvandudzwa kwakanyanya mumisika yemisika uye kurerutsa kunetseka pamusoro pekusimbisa zvakanyanya.
Kuburikidza nekuenderera mberi kwekuburitswa kwekutanga kwe "hawkish signals", iyo Federal Reserve inotungamira kutarisira, iyo isingango mhanyisa kusimba kutenderera, asi zvakare inodzikamisa musika, kuitira kuti mhedzisiro ye "Bhutsu kumhara" igone kuoneka, saka zvaizoita. shandisa nguva yekuchinja kwepolicy noungwaru uye zvakadzikama.
Kunzwisisa hunyanzvi hweFed hwekutarisira manejimendi, isu hatifanirwe kuvhunduka zvakanyanya kana mwero uchikwira.Izvo zvinofanirwa kuzivikanwa kuti zvakanyanya kutyisidzira zvinhu hazvizoitika muyero usati wadonha kubva pakakwirira.Musika unogona kunge watogaya "tarisiro" uye kunyange cashed mukukanganisa kweyero kukwira mberi kwenguva.
Hazvina mhosva kuti zvinotarisirwa zvakakwana sei, hazvigoni kuvharidzira chokwadi chokuti Fed ichiri munzira yehutano hwekusimbisa mari;ndiko kuti, ingave mari yehupfumi kana mitero yezvikwereti inokwira, zvakaoma kuona nzvimbo yekushandura munguva pfupi.
Mharidzo yakakosha ndeyekuti data yeApril inflation ichaburitswa svondo rinouya;kana iyo inflation data inowira kumashure, iyo Fed inogona kudzikamisa nhanho yekukwira kwemitengo inokwira.
Mumwedzi iri kuuya, Fed ingangodzokorora maitiro akafanana, ichibvumira musika kugaya pachine nguva kuburikidza nekutarisira manejimendi.Tinofanira kuvhara mibairo yakaderera iripo nekukasika;sekutaura kunoita tsumo, shiri iri muruoko inofanana neshiri mbiri dzemusango.
Izvo zviri pamusoro zvinogona kupfupikiswa nemutsara muindasitiri yekutengesa: Tenga runyerekupe, tengesa nhau.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: May-10-2022