Kupera kwemhindu kunokwira: yakakwirira asi kwete hazvo kuenderera mberi
10/05/2022
Chii chinonzi dot plot chinoratidzei?
Mangwanani eSeptember 21st, musangano weFOMC wakasvika pakupera.
Hazvishamisi kuti Fed yakasimudza mitengo zvakare mwedzi uno ne 75bp, kunyanya maererano nezvinotarisirwa nemusika.
Iyi yaive yechitatu yakakosha 75bp kukwira kwegore rino, kutora Fed mari chiyero kusvika 3% kusvika 3.25%, iyo yepamusoro yepamusoro kubva 2008.
Mufananidzo: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
Sezvo musika waiwanzo fungidzira pamberi pemusangano kuti Fed yaizokwidzawo mitengo ne75 hwaro mapoinzi mwedzi uno, iyo musika yainyanya kutarisisa yaive pane dot plot uye maonero ehupfumi akaburitswa mushure memusangano.
Iyo dot plot, inomiririra inomiririra yevose Fed policymakers 'interest rate inotarisirwa kwemakore mashoma anotevera, inoratidzwa muchati;kurongeka kwakachinjika kwechati ino igore, kuchinjika kwakamira chiyero chemhindu, uye dovi rega rega riri pachati rinomiririra zvinotarisirwa nemugadziri.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Federal Reserve
Sezvinoratidzwa muchati, ruzhinji (17) rwevane 19 Fed vanoita mitemo vanotenda kuti mhindu ichave 4.00% -4.5% mushure mekukwira kwemareji maviri gore rino.
Saka pari zvino pane mamiriro maviri ezviviri zvasara kukwira kwechiyero gore risati rapera.
100 bps rate kukwira pakupera kwegore, kukwira kuviri kwe50 bps imwe neimwe (8 vagadziri vemitemo vari mufavour).
Misangano miviri yasara kuti ikwidze mitengo ne125 bps, 75 bps muna Mbudzi uye 50 bps muna Zvita (9 vagadziri vemitemo vari mufavour).
Tichitarisa zvakare pachiyero chinotarisirwa kukwira muna 2023, huwandu hwakawanda hwevhoti hwakakamurwa zvakaenzana pakati pe4.25% ne5%.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti mubereko wepakati wekutarisira gore rinouya i4.5% kusvika 4.75%.Kana mari dzemubereko dzakwidzwa kusvika pa4.25% pamisangano miviri yasara gore rino, izvi zvinoreva kuti pachange paine 25 basis point rate chete gore rinouya.
Saka, maererano nezvinotarisirwa zveiyi dot plot, hapazove nenzvimbo yakawanda yekuti Fed ikwidze mitengo gore rinouya.
Uye kana zviri zvekutarisira mubereko wegore ra2024, zviri pachena kuti maonero evagadziri vemitemo ari kure kwazvo uye haana zvakawanda zvine chekuita nezviripo.
Chii chine chokwadi, zvisinei, ndechekuti Fed's tightening cycle ichaenderera mberi - nekukwira kwakasimba kwemwero.
Kuoma kwawakaita iye zvino, ndiko kupfupika kwawakaita
Wall Street inotenda kuti chinangwa cheFed ndechekugadzira "yakaomarara, ipfupi" inosimbisa kutenderera kunozopedzisira kunonoka kukura kwehupfumi mukudzorera kutonhora kweinflation.
Maonero eFed nezveramangwana rehupfumi, akaziviswa pamusangano uyu, anotsigira dudziro iyi.
Mune maonero ayo ehupfumi, Fed yakagadziridza fungidziro yayo yeGDP chaiyo muna 2022 zvakadzika pasi kusvika 0.2% kubva 1.7% muna Chikumi, uye yakagadziridzawo kukwira kwayo fungidziro yehuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa pagore.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Federal Reserve
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti Federal Reserve yatanga kutyira kuti hupfumi hunogona kunge huri kupinda mukuderera kwehupfumi, sezvo fungidziro dzehupfumi nemabasa dziri kuramba dzichiwedzera kusavimbika.
Panguva imwecheteyo, Powell akataurawo pachena pamusangano wevatori venhau wepashure pemusangano, "Sezvo kukwira kwehasha kunoenderera mberi, mikana yekumhara yakapfava inogona kudzikira.
Iyo Fed inobvumawo kuti kuwedzera hukasha kukwirisa kunogona kutungamira mukuderera uye ropa mumisika.
Nenzira iyi, zvisinei, Fed inogona kupedza basa re "kurwisa inflation" nguva isati yasvika, uye chiyero chekukwira kwechikwata chichapera.
Pakazere, chiyero chazvino chekukwira kutenderera chinogona kunge chiri "chakaoma uye nekukurumidza" chiito.
Kukwidza Reteti yemumba kunogona kupedzwa nguva isati yarongwa
Kubva gore rino, kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekukwira neFed kwasvika ku300bp, kusanganiswa nedot plot kuona chiyero chekukwira chichaenderera mberi kwenguva yakati, iyo mitemo inomira munguva pfupi uye haizoshanduki.
Izvi zvakabvisa zvachose pfungwa dzemusika dzekuti Fed ichakurumidza kufamba kuti ireruke, uye kubva pari zvino, goho remabhondi eUS emakore gumi rakapfura kumusoro, uye rave kuda kusvika kumusoro kwe3.7%.
Asi nerumwe rutivi, iyo Federal Reserve mune yehupfumi fungidziro yezvekunetsekana kwehupfumi, pamwe neiyo dot zano rekumhanya kwemhindu inowedzera gore rinouya inotarisirwa kuderera, izvo zvinoreva kuti maitiro ekusimudza mubereko, kunyangwe zvakadaro. asi utonga hwatsvuka.
Mukuwedzera, kune kunonoka mumutemo weFed's rate hike policy, iyo isati yanyatsogayiwa nehupfumi, uye nepo chiyero chinotevera chinokwira chichave chisina hanya, mashoko akanaka ndeokuti vanogona kupedzwa nokukurumidza.
Pamusika wekutengesa, hapana mubvunzo kuti mibairo icharamba yakakwirira munguva pfupi, asi zvichida mafungu achachinja gore rinouya.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Oct-06-2022