Ichi chirevo chinoreva kuti Fed ichadzikamisa chiyero chaDecember kusvika kumakumi mashanu.

Panguva imwecheteyo, vatori vechikamu vakati, "Nekuda kwekusagadzikana kwegwaro remari, kukurumidza kunonoka kwekuwedzera kwemitengo kungaita zviri nani kubvumira FOMC kuti iongorore kufambira mberi kune zvinangwa zvayo uye kugumisa kuti - iyo yekupedzisira peak federal fund rate ichave yakakwira kupfuura kare. projected.

Mune mamwe mazwi, iyo Fed yazvino kutenderera kweyero yekukwira yapinda mune itsva, inononoka asi yakakwirira uye yakareba chikamu.

Fed yakabvuma kuderera kwegwaro remari uye yakajekesa kuti mhedzisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yapfuura haisati yaendeswa kumusika zvizere uye kuti lag iyi "haina chokwadi."

Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo Fed yakasarudza kudzikisa nhanho yekukwira kwemitengo kuti itarise zvirinani mhedzisiro yekukwira kwemitengo pane ine inflation.

 

Kukwira kwemitengo kuchapera muna 2023

Chii chinoita kuti musika ugare uye ucherechedze inyaya yekuti Fed yakanyatso gadzirisa njodzi yekudzikira kekutanga mumaminetsi - mukana wekuderera kweUS muna 2023 unofungidzirwa kusvika pamakumi mashanu%.

Iyi ndiyo yambiro yekutanga yakafanana kubva kuFed kubva payakatanga kukwidza mitengo yemubereko munaKurume, yambiro yakadzorawo maonero emusika ekuderedzwa kwemitengo kutanga muna 2023.

Kutevera kusunungurwa kwemaminetsi, 10-year US bond goho rakadzokera ku3.663%;mukana wekukwira kwemakumi mashanu ekutanga muna Zvita wakakwirawo kusvika pa75.8%.

Vanhu vazhinji vanotenda kuti "hawkishness" yeFed inogona kunge yakakwira, uye zvinotarisirwa nevakawanda kuti kutenderera kwazvino kunopera muna 2023.

Chirevo chazvino uno chinotsigirawo fungidziro iyi.

Maererano nekufanotaura kweGoldman Sachs, index yeCPI ichaderera kusvika pasi pe5% nemisangano yakawanda yezvibereko gore rinouya.

Kamwe inflation yakaratidza kuderera nguva dzose gore rinouya, kumiswa kweFed kwekukwira kwemitengo kwave pedyo.

 

Nzira yeramangwana yakaita sei?

Ziva kuti Musangano weFOMC waNovember wakatangira kuburitswa kwaGumiguru kweCPI.

NeCPI inotonhora kupfuura zvaitarisirwa mwedzi wapfuura, maonero ekupedzisira evakuru veFed anogona kunge achidzidzisa nezveramangwana remitemo.

Zvisinei, zviri pachena zvakare kubva mukutaura kwevanhu munguva pfupi yapfuura kuti vazhinji veFed vakuru vanotora maonero akafanana neaya mumaminitsi - kukurumidza kwekuwedzera kwehuwandu kunogona kuderedzwa, asi pachine chido chekusimbisa mutemo mberi.

Vakuru vazhinji vakaisa mwero wavakatemerwa kusvika pa5%.Izvi zvinoreva kuti mitengo ichakwira munaKurume unotevera kana Fed ichisimudza mitengo ne50 basis points muna Zvita, sezvaitarisirwa.

Panguva iyoyo, mari yeFed ichave 5.0% - 5.25% uye icharamba iri munharaunda iyoyo kwenguva yakati.

Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kwazvino kwaWind, misangano misere yemubereko muna 2023 (Kukadzi, Kurume, Chivabvu, Chikumi, Chikunguru, Gunyana, Mbudzi, naZvita) ichatevera nzira inotevera.

 

A 50 base point rate kukwira muna Kukadzi.

25 bps chiyero chekukwira munaKurume (kumbomira muchiyero kukwira ipapo).

25 bps mwero wakachekwa muna Zvita (shanduko yekutanga kuenda kumatengo ekucheka)

 

Iyo Federal Reserve ichaita musangano wayo wekupedzisira wemari yegore muna Zvita 13-14, uye 50 base point rate kukwira inogona kutariswa sechokwadi chakakwana.

Kamwe iyo Fed ikacheka mitengo kekutanga, kubva pamakumi manomwe neshanu mapoinzi kusvika makumi mashanu mapoinzi, mitero yembavha inotarisirwa kudzikira neimwe nguva panguva iyoyo.