Mhedziso yegore negore yeFederal Reserve - zviratidzo zvishanu zvakakosha!
12/26/2022
Vhiki rapfuura, maziso emisika yenyika akatendeukira zvakare kuFederal Reserve - pakupera kwemusangano wemazuva maviri, Fed ichazivisa sarudzo dzayo dzemari muna Zvita, pamwe chete nepfupiso yayo yekupedzisira yekota yehupfumi (SEP). ) uye dot plot.
Zvisingashamisi, iyo Federal Reserve yakadzikisa kukwira kwayo neChitatu sezvaitarisirwa, ichisimudza mari yemubatanidzwa ne50 basis points kusvika 4.25% -4.5%.
Kubva munaKurume wegore rino, Federal Reserve yakasimudza mitero nehwerengedzo ye425 mapoinzi, uye uku kukwira kwemwero waZvita kwakavhara gore rekuomesera uye zviri pachena kuti ndiyo yakanyanya kukosha shanduko mukukwira kwemwero wazvino.
Uye ndeapi masaini akakosha ayo Fed yakapa kune ino yekupera kwegore kuratidza kwemitengo yemubereko?
Mitemo ichakwidzwa sei Kukadzi unotevera?
Nekukwira kwemitengo kunonoka kusvika kumakumi mashanu mapoinzi mwedzi uno, kunetsana kutsva kwabuda: Ko iyo Fed "inorova mabhureki" zvakare?
Pamusangano wekufarira mukutanga kwaFebruary gore rinouya, iyo Federal Reserve ichasimudza mitengo nemarii?Powell akapindura mubvunzo uyu.
Kutanga, Powell akabvuma kuti migumisiro yekukwira kwekare yakapinza "ichiri kunonoka" uye akadzokorora kuti nzira yakakodzera ikozvino ndeyekuderedza chiyero chekukwira;zvisinei, chiyero chinotevera chekukwira chichasarudzwa zvichienderana nedata idzva uye mamiriro emari uye ehupfumi panguva iyoyo.
Sezvauri kuona, iyo Fed yakapinda zviri pamutemo muchikamu chechipiri chekufamba-famba zvishoma nezvishoma, asi kunotevera chiyero kukwira kucharamba kuchigadziriswa nekutarisa zvakanyanya inflation data.
Chikwereti chemufananidzo: CME FED Watch Tool
Zvichipa kuderera kusingatarisirwi kubva kuCPI muna Mbudzi, zvinotarisirwa pamusika zveiyo inotevera 25 hwaro hwenheyo yekukwira yakakwira kusvika ku75%.
Ndeupi mubereko wepamusoro wemubereko wenguva ino yekukwira kwemitengo?
Iko kumhanya kwehuwandu hwekukwira ikozvino haisisiri iyo inonyanya kukosha munhaurirano dzeFed;Chinokosha ndechekuti chikamu chemubereko chekupedzisira chinofanira kunge chakakwira sei.
Tinowana mhinduro kumubvunzo uyu muchidimbu chechikamu chino.
Iyo dot-plot inoburitswa pamusangano wemubereko pakupera kwekota yega yega.Kuenzaniswa naSeptember, panguva ino Fed yakasimudza tarisiro yayo yegore rinouya remitemo.
Nzvimbo yakatsvuka-yakaganhurwa mune chati iri pazasi ndiyo yakakura kwazvo yeFed inotarisirwa nevagadziri vemitemo yegore rinouya.
Mufananidzo wechikwereti: Federal Reserve
Kubva pahuwandu hwevagadziri vemitemo gumi nevapfumbamwe, gumi vanotenda kuti mitengo inofanira kusimudzwa kusvika pakati pe5% ne5.25% gore rinouya.
Izvi zvinoreva zvakare kuti 75 hwaro hwemapoinzi ekuwedzera hunodiwa pamisangano inotevera mitengo isati yamiswa kana kudzikiswa.
Iyo Fed inofunga sei inflation ichakwira?
Dhipatimendi reBasa rakashuma Chipiri chekupedzisira kuti CPI yakawedzera 7.1% munaNovember kubva gore rapfuura, yakaderera yegore, ichiita mwedzi mishanu inoteedzana yegore negore CPI inoderera.
Panyaya iyo, Powell akati: Pakave ne "kugamuchirwa kuderera" mukukwira kwemari mumwedzi miviri yapfuura, asi Fed inoda kuona humwe uchapupu hwokuti inflation iri kuwira;zvisinei, iyo Fed inotarisirawo kuti inflation inodonha zvakanyanya pamusoro pegore rinotevera.
Mufananidzo kubva: Carson
Nhoroondo, kusimba kweFed kwave kuda kumira kana mitengo yasimudzwa pamusoro peCPI - Fed ikozvino yave kuswedera pachinangwa ichocho.
Ichachinja riini kusvika pakuderedzwa kwemitengo?
Kana zviri zvekuenda kumarita ekucheka muna 2023, Fed haina kujekesa hurongwa uhu.
Powell akati, "Chete kana inflation yakwira kusvika pa2% ndipo patichazofunga nezve kuderedzwa."
Sekureva kwaPowell, chinhu chinonyanya kukosha mumhepo yazvino inflation is core services inflation.
Idzi data rinonyanya kukanganiswa nemusika wakasimba wevashandi uye unoramba uchikura muhoro, ndicho chikonzero chikuru chekuwedzera kweinflation yebasa.
Kana musika wevashandi uchinge watonhora uye kukura kwemubairo zvishoma nezvishoma kunosvika pachinangwa cheinflation, ipapo inflation yemusoro inodererawo nekukurumidza.
Tichaona kudzikira kwehupfumi gore rinouya?
Muchidimbu chekupedzisira kwekota yehupfumi, vakuru veFederal Reserve vakasimudzazve tarisiro yavo yehuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa muna 2023 - chiyero chepakati chekushaikwa kwemabasa chinotarisirwa kukwira kusvika pa4.6 muzana gore rinouya kubva pa3.7 muzana iripo.
Mufananidzo kunobva: Federal Reserve
Nhoroondo, kana hurovha hukakwira seizvi, hupfumi hweUS hunowira mukuderera.
Pamusoro pezvo, iyo Federal Reserve yakadzikisa fungidziro yayo yekukura kwehupfumi muna 2023.
Musika unotenda ichi chiratidzo chakasimba chekuderera kwehupfumi, kuti hupfumi huri panjodzi yekudonha gore rinouya, uye kuti Federal Reserve inogona kumanikidzwa kudzikisa mubereko muna 2023.
Summary
Kakawanda, Federal Reserve yakaderedza kukurumidza kwehuwandu hwekukwira kwekutanga, ichigadzira zviri pamutemo nzira yekuwedzera kwekuwedzera;uye kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma kwedata kubva kuCPI kunosimbisa zvinotarisirwa kuti inflation yakakwira.
Sezvo inflation inoramba ichiderera, Fed ingangomira kukwidza mitengo muchikamu chekutanga chegore rinouya;inogona kufunga nezvekucheka mitengo mukota yechina nekuda kwekunetseka kwekuderera kwehupfumi.
Mufananidzo wechikwereti: Freddie Mac
Mutengo wemortgage wakagadzikana panzvimbo yakaderera mumwedzi mitatu yapfuura, uye zvakaoma kuona kuwedzera kukuru zvakare, uye zvichida zvishoma nezvishoma zvinowira mukuvhunduka.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-26-2022