Chokwadi nezvemusika wevashandi, uchiri kupisa mushure mekukwira kushanu kwemhindu
10/14/2022
Nonfarm payrolls data yakapfuura zvinotarisirwa zvakare
NeChishanu, iyo nonfarm payroll report yaGunyana yakaburitswa, uye yaive "yakasimba" mushumo webasa chero chiyero.
Nonfarm payrolls yakawedzera ne263,000 munaSeptember, pamusoro pekutarisira kwemusika kwe255,000 uye chiyero chekushaikwa kwemabasa zvisingatarisirwi chakawira ku3.5%, iyo yakaderera mumakore makumi mashanu, uye pasi pezvinotarisirwa nemusika zve3.7%.
Zvichitevera kuburitswa kwemushumo uyu, masheya eUS akadonha zvakanyanya uye goho pa10-gore US zvisungo zvakatosvika pakakwirira patsva, zvichikwira kusvika pamusoro pe3.9% pane imwe nguva.
Dhata rakanaka rehupfumi rakashandurwa zvakare kuita nhau dzakaipa pamusika - iyo Fed yaive nechinangwa chekudzikisa kudiwa kwevashandi, izvo zvaizotonhorera kukura kwemuhoro uye pakupedzisira kudzikisa inflation.
Zvisinei, mushumo uyu unoratidza kuti kuwedzera kweFed kwairatidza kuti "kwaisashanda" uye hakuna kutonhodza musika wevashandi, izvo zvakasimbisawo tarisiro yeFed yeimwe 75 basis point rate kukwira munaNovember.
Mumwedzi mishomanana chete, kubva munaMarch kusvika munaSeptember, Fed yakasimudza mari yezvibereko nehuwandu hwe300bp, asi misika yevashandi yakanonoka kutonhora.
Sei musika wevashandi uchiri kusimba mushure mekukwira kushanu kwakatevedzana?Chikonzero chikuru ndechekunonoka mune data.
Chokwadi nezve "simba" nhamba
Pane zvikonzero zviviri zve data rakasimba zvakadaro rebasa.
Imwe ndeyekuti vanhu vasingade kushanda havana kuverengerwa muhuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa: Sekureva kweDhipatimendi reVashandi, vanhu vangangosvika mamirioni maviri vakatadza kushanda munaGunyana nekuda kwedenda - huwandu uhu hauna kuverengerwa muhuwandu hwemabasa. .
Chechipiri, kuverenga kaviri: kazhinji pane nzira mbiri dzehuwandu hwehuwandu hwevanhu vari muvashandi, ongororo dzemhuri uye ongororo yezvivakwa.
Ongororo yedzimba inoenderana nehuwandu hwevanhu, kana mhuri ine vanhu vaviri vanoshanda, pane vanhu vaviri vanoshanda;ongororo yekumisikidzwa, kune rumwe rutivi, yakavakirwa pamabasa, kana munhu mumwe akashanda mumabhizinesi maviri panguva imwe chete, kune vanhu vaviri vanoshanda.
Chinonyanya kukosha ndechekuti iyo nonfarm payroll data inotora data rekuongorora kwekutanga, uye mumwedzi mitanhatu yadarika, kukura kwemabasa muongororo yekutangwa kwakapfuura nekure ongororo yemhuri.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti mumwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura, nhamba yevanhu vanoshanda mabasa anodarika rimwe panguva yakawedzera, uye vamwe vevashandirwi “vakaverengwa kaviri.”
Kubva pane zviri pamusoro, zviri pachena kuti musika wevashandi kuseri kweiyo nonfarm payroll data inogona kunge isingave inopisa sezvainoratidzika.
Uyezve, kukura kwevasiri kurima mubhadharo munaGunyana ndiko kwakawedzera kudiki kubva muna Kubvumbi '21, uye shanduko diki mune iyi data inogona kunge yakanyanya kukosha sezvo kukura kwebasa kuri kuramba kuchiderera.
Musika wevashandi wakaratidza zviratidzo zvekushaya simba, asi zvechinyakare zvakakosha zviratidzo hazviratidzi zviitiko izvi nenguva yakakodzera nekuda kwekuderera kwakanyanya muhuwandu hwekuunganidza data.
Tinogona zvakare kutarisa kune nhoroondo data.Sezvauri kuona kubva pachati pazasi, nonfarm payroll data ine "blunted" maitiro kune iyo Fed's rate yekukwira.
Kunobva data: Bloomberg
Sezvakaitika kare, kukwirisa kwakati wandei kwakakwanisa kudzikisira maitiro ekukwira mumihoro mitsva isiri yepurazi, asi kudzokororwa kwemaitiro aya kwagara kwave kuderedzwa kubva padanho rekukwira.
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti data rebasa rinoitawo nekusarira kuFed rate kukwira.
Kuti nonfarm payrolls data sei inotungamira kukwira kwemitengo
Kukwidza mitengo nekukasira kunogona kukanganisa hupfumi, uye Fed inonyatsoziva izvozvo, asi Powell anotaura nezvekushomeka kwakadzikira pamusangano wega wega sehumbowo hwakakosha hwekuti hupfumi hahusi panjodzi yekuderera.
Sezvatakambotaura, kukwira kweFed kwave nemhedzisiro uye haisati yanyatsobatwa nehupfumi.
Zvakadaro, kuderera kwekukura kwemabasa kuchavawo zvishoma nezvishoma, nemusika wevashandi uchitevera kutonhora zvishoma nezvishoma kwehupfumi, izvo zvinozoita kuti inflation ienderere mberi.
Panguva ino, Fed inogonawo kunonoka kana kumisa nhanho yekukwira kwechikwereti.
Zvisinei, Fed inoramba ichinyatsoteerera kune nonfarm payrolls report uye core PCE rate, uye September nonfarm payrolls maitiro anoramba achipa hwaro hwekukwira kwe75bp munaNovember.
Mari dzemhindu dzichakwira zvakare, uye vanotenga dzimba vanoda chikwereti vanofanira kutanga nekukurumidza kudzivirira kupotsa nguva yakafanira yekuchengetedza mitengo yakaderera.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Oct-15-2022