Sei Akadaro iyo Fed Rate Cut May Not Be Far Anzira
07/06/2022
Iyo Big Short prototype: Iyo Fed ichadzosera iyo deflation !
Kana vatengi vari kufara mukusimudzira "zvisati zvamboitika" mwaka, havazivi kuti vatengesi vekuUS vakatarisana nedambudziko rakaipisisa kubva pakuputika kweInternet.
NeMuvhuro, Michael Burry, protagonist wemufirimu "The Big Short", uyo aive nemukurumbira nekufanotaura nezvedambudziko rehupfumi ra2008, akataura kuti "Bullwhip Effect" muchikamu chekutengesa zvaizotungamira kudzoreredzwa kweiyo Fed mubereko wekuwedzera.
Saka, chii chinonzi Bullwhip Effect?Inoreva kukwidziridzwa uye kusiyanisa kwechido muketani yekugovera.
Muchikamu chekugovera, shanduko diki mukuda dzichakwidziridzwa nhanho nhanho kubva kune vatengesi kuenda kune vanogadzira uye nevatengesi, uye kugovana ruzivo hakugone kuwanikwa zvinobudirira pakati pavo.Uku kukanganiswa uye kukwidziridzwa kweruzivo kunoratidzika sechikwapuro chine graphic, saka chinodaidzwa kuti "Bullwhip Effect".
Gore rakapfuura, kutenderera kwepasirese kwepasirese kwaive mumhirizhonga.Panguva iyoyo, matambudziko ekupa magomba akakonzerwa nedenda aive akakomba.Vatengesi nevatengesi vakamhanyiswa kuti vatenge zvinhu kuti vadzore zvinyorwa zvavo nekutya kuti vaizopererwa nezvitoro, izvo zvakakonzerawo kuti "resonate" muvagadziri vekutanga, nekudaro vachikwidza mitengo nekuwedzera kugadzirwa panguva imwe chete.
Nekudaro, sezvo kudiwa kwakadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, zvigadzirwa zvevatengesi zvakawedzera, uye vakatomhanya kujekesa zvinyorwa zvakawandisa, izvo zvakakonzera kudonha nekukurumidza mumitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda zvakakosha.
Sezvo zvinhu zvichifambira mberi, kukanganisa kwacho kwakapinda zvishoma nezvishoma padanho rekutanga rekukwira kwemitengo.
Sekureva kwaMichael Burry, iyo yapfuura yakawandisa muchikamu chekutengesa inotungamira kune "Bullwhip Effect".Nekudaro, nekudzikira kwekuda, iyo "Bullwhip Effect" inopera uye ichaita kuti deflation gare gare gore rino.Izvi zvinokurudzira iyo Fed kudzosera nzira yekusimbisa kana kutotangazve iyo yehuwandu yekurerutsa mutemo.
I s t iye" Mushure mekusimbisa kwekutanga kukurudzira ” musungo zvakaoma kutiza?
Iyo "Mushure mekusimba kwekutanga kurudziro" musungo wakajairwa mugwaro rakavhiringidza mabhanga mazhinji ekumadokero muma1970 nema1980s.Zvichiri kutambudza dzimwe nyika dzichiri kusimukira nanhasi.
Muchidimbu, musungo uyu unogona kurondedzerwa semitemo yemari yeCentral Bank inoshandura pakati pekutengesa kwepasi uye kukura kwepamusoro kakawanda, pakupedzisira kukundikana kuenzanisa zvinangwa zviviri izvi.
Zvinocherechedzwa kuti munhoroondo, chiitiko icho Federal Reserve chakacheka mubereko nekukurumidza mushure mekukwira kweyero kusati kwaitika, uye zvinogona kutoitika kakawanda kupfuura zvaungafunga.
Chati iri pamusoro inoratidza US median CPI pakutanga kweimwe neimwe yeFed's gumi nematatu ekukwira kwemitengo mukati memakore makumi manomwe apfuura, pamwe nekukosha kweCPI pakutanga kweiyo mhindu yekucheka kutenderera mushure memubereko wekuwedzera kutenderera.
Chati inoratidza kuti pane kazhinji kacho mukaha wemwedzi mina pakati peyekupedzisira Fed rate kukwira uye yekutanga kutemwa.
Mukuwedzera, iyo yepakati CPI yakanga ichiri kusvika kusvika ku4.4% panguva yekutanga kuderedzwa kwemari, izvo zvinoratidza kuti zvisarudzo zveFed pamusoro pemubereko zvinowanzoenderana nekutarisa mberi kwete pane zviri kuitika iye zvino.
Uyezve, kune nguva dzakawanda munhoroondo apo Fed inotangazve mubereko wekucheka kuderera kunyange zvazvo inflation inoramba yakakwirira.
Kunyange zvazvo nhoroondo isingangozvidzokorori zvayo, nguva dzose ine zvakafanana.Vazhinji vaongorori vakatiwo zvingangove zvakanyanya kuti Fed idzokere munhoroondo yayo ye "kukwidza mitengo isati yadzikisira".
Panogona kuva ne "stop" muzinga hike gore rino
Musi weChina, Dhipatimendi reKutengeserana rakazivisa kuti core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) Mutengo weIndex kukura wakaderedzwa kusvika ku4.7% muna May.
Mufananidzo uri pamusoro apa ndiyo Fed's inosarudzika inflation chiratidzo.Kuderera kwePCE price index kunoreva kuti inflation kunze kwezvokudya nesimba haisisiri "yakakwirira," uye pane uchapupu hwokuti inflation iri kuwedzera.
Negoho remakore gumi richidonha kubva pa2.973% kusvika pa2.889%, zvinoita kunge zvisiri nyore kudzokera ku3% zvakare.
Kunze kwekubuda kweinflationary point, chikonzero chakakosha chekudonha mugoho reTreasury humbowo huri kukura hunoratidza kuti hupfumi hwakaderera.
Misika yakatotarisana nemukana wekukurumidza kudzoserwa mutemo weFed.
Investment Strategists muMauldin Economics vanofunga kuti Fed inogona kumisa musangano wayo mukupera kwaGunyana;zvisinei, "kumira" kunogona kureva kuwedzera kwekota-point kukwira panzvimbo ye50 kana 75 nheyo yepamusoro.
Ngatitii Fed yafunga kuti core inflation yadzikira uye inonyatsoziva kuti hupfumi huri kutsika mukuderera.Kana zvakadaro, vanogona kutangazve mitemo yekurerutsa kwehuwandu kunyangwe inflation ikatadza kusvika payaivavarira yegoho re2 muzana.
Mune mamwe mazwi, zvichida tinogona kuona Fed ichideredza kukurumidza kwekusimbisa gore risati rapera, asi kutendeuka kwemutemo kutanga kutema mitengo hakusi kure.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-07-2022