Ko Powell achave wechipiri Volcker?
06/23/2022
Kurota kudzokera ku 1970s
NeChitatu, Federal Reserve yakasimudza mubereko nemakumi manomwe neshanu, inova danho rakakura kwazvo mumakore anoda kusvika makumi matatu kuderedza inflation.
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, inflation yave iri pamakore makumi mana emwedzi yakawanda mune inogona kunzi "nguva yakareba" yekukwira kwepamusoro kwepamusoro, iyo inorangarira dambudziko risati ramboitika rekukwira kweflation rakatanga muma1970.
Panguva iyoyo, inflation yeUS yakambokwira kusvika pa15%, kukura kweGDP kwakadzikira, kushaikwa kwemabasa kwakawedzera.Zvakadaro, Federal Reserve yakazununguka pakati pekubata nekukwira kwemitengo nemabasa, izvo zvakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo kwakanyanyisa uye kusimukira kwehupfumi.
Aive Paul Volcker, panguva iyoyo sachigaro weFederal Reserve, akabatsira chaizvo US kubvisa nhamo yayo muma1980s - akakunda maonero ese aipikisa uye akaisa mitemo yekuomesera nesimba rinotyisa.Huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hwakakwira kubva pa6% kuenda pa11% munguva pfupi mushure mekukwidza mubereko pamusoro pe10%.
Kare ikako, vashandi vekuvaka vakamutumira matombo makuru emapuranga vachinyunyuta, vatengesi vemotokari vakamutumira makiyi emotokari itsva idzo dzakanga dzisingadiwi nomunhu, uye varimi vari pamatirakita vanoshevedzera vari kunze kwechivako chemarble cheFederal Reserve.Asi hapana kana chimwe cheizvi chakatsausa Mr Volcker.
Gare gare, akasimudza chiyero chemubereko kusvika pamakumi maviri muzana, achideredza inflation yakakomba panguva iyoyo, dambudziko rakakwanisa kusvika pakupera, hupfumi hwakadzoserwa kumashure, izvo zvakateyawo hwaro hwemakumi emakore akatevera. zvebudiriro.
Nguva yeVolcker iri kuuya here?
Kusvetuka kweFed mumitengo yemubereko kubva munaKurume yakaita kuti misika idedere: nguva yeVolcker yasvika zvakare.
Nekudaro, zvinonakidza kuti iyo Fed pachayo haina kuburitsa pachena chiratidzo chekukwira kwechiyero che75BP kumusika manheru emusangano uyu, uye zvine musoro kutaura kuti kuvhiyiwa kwacho kwanga kusingatarisirike.
Asi kubva munaChikumi 15, musika wakatengesa mutengo wakazara mukukwira uku, pazuva rakakwira mwero, musika wakaiswa munhau dzisina kunaka uye masheya eUS nemabhondi akasimuka pamwechete.
Zvikonzero zvechiitiko ichi ndezvekuti data yeCPI yakapfuura zvaitarisirwa uye mushumo muWall Street Journal - bhuku rinozivikanwa se "Federal Reserve News Agency".
Mushumo wacho wakaratidza kuti nhepfenyuro inovhiringidza yekukwira kwemitengo mumazuva achangopfuura ingangotungamira vakuru veFed kuti vatarise kusingatarisirwi kwe75 basis point rate pamusangano wevhiki ino.
Chinyorwa ichi chakakonzera mheremhere pamusika, uye kunyange maindasitiri makuru Goldman Sachs naJPMorgan vakatevera kutungamira kwake uye vakagadziridza mafambiro avo husiku.
Musika wakatanga kukurumidza mutengo mukukwira kwe75 BP pamusangano uyu, uye iyo Fed yaitarisirwa kukwira muna Chikumi yakatumira mukana weiyo 75 basis point hike ichikwira kusvika pamusoro pe90%, vachiziva kuti nhamba iyi yaingova 3.9% a svondo rapfuura.
Kubva ipapo, zvinoita sekunge Fed inotungamirwa nemusika: yakawedzera mitengo ne75 basic point pasina kuita chero "tarisiro" mberi.
Pamusoro pezvo, Powell akaburitsawo mameseji anovhiringa pamusangano: 75 hwaro hwemapoinzi ekukwira kwemitengo kwaisazove kwakajairika kuona, asi kumwe kukwira kwe75bp kungangove muna Chikunguru.Aifunga kuti tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yemutengi iri kutarisana nenjodzi kubva kumusoro weinflation, asi zvakadaro, akataurawo kuti iyo musoro wenyaya inflation rate haina kukanganisa zvinotarisirwa munzira ipi neipi yakakosha.
Matauriro anovhiringa uye mhinduro dzisina kujeka pamwe nechiyero chekusundira sarudzo dzese pane dzakazotevera data zvakaita kuti zvitiomere isu kuona kuomarara kwakafanana uye kusimba mukurwisa hyperinflation kubva kuna Powell saVolcker.
Kusvika pari zvino, izvo zvinonyanya kutyiwa nemusika hakusi kukwira kwechiyero, asi Fed inonyanya kuvhiringidza.
Zvinhu zvipi zvingapera the rate kukwira?
Muna March, FOMC dot plot yakaratidza kuti Fed yaizosimudza mitengo zvishoma nezvishoma mumakore maviri anotevera;nepo ikozvino FOMC dot plot inoratidza kuti mushure mekuwedzera kwehuwandu hwehuwandu mukati megore rino uye kukwira kuduku kwegore rinouya, Fed inotarisirwa kutanga kutema mitengo gore rinotevera.
Asi inflation, austerity, kukura kwakagadzira "impossible triangle", iyo FOMC yakasimbisa zvakare kuti kugadzirisa inflation ndicho chinangwa chikuru, kana ikozvino chinangwa chikuru chiri chekudzivirira inflation uye kushaya simba, ipapo kuderera kwehupfumi kunogona kunge kusingadzivisiki.
Kuchengeta inflation iri pasi pesimba nguva dzose mutambo, tichirangarira kuti zvakaitwa naVaVolcker zvakaperekedzwa nekuderera kwemari mbiri, uye akaratidza kukosha kweFed kuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemitengo.Chete nekuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemutengo kuchave nekukura kwakasimba kwenguva refu.
Ikozvino zvinoita sekunge kungovandudza kwakakosha mukukwira kwemitengo, kukwira kwakanyanya kwekushaikwa kwemabasa, kana dambudziko rehupfumi kana remusika richatadzisa Fed.
Asi sezvo masangano akawanda achipa yambiro yekuderera kwehupfumi, musika unogona kutanga zvishoma nezvishoma mutengo munjodzi dzakadzika kuhupfumi, uye isu tinogona kutarisira kuona 10-gore reUS bond goho richidzokera pasi pe2.5% kunyangwe gore risati rapera.
Zvisinei, rima kusati kwaedza ringave rakanyanya kuoma.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Jun-23-2022