Mari yemortgage ichaunza mambakwedza pasi pe shrinking balance sheet?
04/23/2022
Iyo Fed yakataura mumaminetsi ayo achangopfuura kuti ichatanga zviri pamutemo kudzikisa pepa rayo muna Chivabvu, uye yakafanotaura kuti inogona kunge iri hombe zvachose.Mushure mekunge Federal Reserve yatanga mubereko wekukwira kutenderera, chirongwa chekudzikisa chiyero chakaiswawo pachirongwa.Vamwe vanokwereta vanogona kunzwa vasinganzwisisike pamusoro pe "kuderera kwebhanhire" kamwe kamwe.Pakatanga COVID-19 muna 2020, iyo Federal Reserve yakatanga kutenga mabhondi akawanda kubva pamusika, nechinangwa chekusimudzira hupfumi nekupinza mari mumusika.Iyi nzira inozivikanwa seQE (Quantitative Easing) mutemo.Mhedzisiro yakananga yemutemo weQE kuderedzwa kwemitengo yemubereko uye kuwedzera kwemari yemusika.Kuburikidza nemutemo weQE, chinangwa chikuru cheFed ndechekudzikisa mubereko nekuwedzera mari pamusika, nokudaro kuzadzisa chinangwa chekusimudzira hupfumi.Mumakore maviri apfuura, kukwira kwemusika wemasheya uye mitengo yedzimba, uye yakaderera mortgage mubereko zvese zvinokonzerwa neQE mutemo.
Shrinking Balance Sheet inogona kuonekwa sereverse operation yeQE policy, Chinangwa chayo chakananga ndechekuderedza nhamba yemativi ose emari panguva imwe chete, kuitira kuti uwane chinangwa chekuderedza kutenderera kwemari, iyo. zvakare inounza zvinopesana neQE mutemo.Mhedzisiro yemutemo weQE inowanzove inflation, uye ikozvino inflation "yakakwirira", saka mushure mokunge Fed yatanga kukwidza mhindu, inofanira kupisa uye kutanga Shrinking Balance Sheet, kuitira kuti "double-brake" inflation.
Ko round iyi ichaita sei Shrinking Balance Sheet kuitwa?
Pane nzira nhatu huru dzekudzikisa saizi yekutenga mabhondi;kutengesa zvisungo zvakananga;uye kubvumira zvinhu kuti zvidzikinure otomatiki pakukura (kudzikinurwa), kureva kuti, kumisa kudzoreredza pakukura.
Nzira nhatu dzese dzinogona kushandiswa kudzikisa saizi yebalance sheet, kuderedza huwandu hwemari iri kutenderera kukwidza mhindu, uye kutonga inflation.
Maminitsi emusangano uchangoburwa wegwaro remari wakaburitswa neFederal Reserve anoratidza kuti kuitira kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo kuri kukwira, vanogadzira mitemo "vakabvumirana" kuderedza hupfumi hweFed nemadhora anosvika mabhiriyoni makumi mapfumbamwe nemashanu pamwedzi.
Maminitsi akataurwawo "kunyanya kuburikidza nekudzoreredza kwemukuru akagamuchirwa kubva kuSOMA's securities holdings," zvichireva kuti iyi denderedzwa yekuderera ichave "inongoita," pane kutengesa kushingaira, nenzira yechitatu yataurwa pamusoro apa.Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzakawanda dzinotarisira kuti Fed ivavarire kudzikisira pepa rayo nemadhora mazana matatu emadhora mumakore matatu.Asi maminetsi haana kutsanangura kuti chivharo chaizoiswa sei, ruzivo rungangoziviswa pamusangano waMay.Kana iyo Fed ikaramba ichidzikisira pepa rayo sezvakarongwa, ichave yakakura kupfuura dzose.
Shrink iri kukurumidza , kukanganisa kungasadaro intensified
Kutenderera kwekupedzisira kwekuderera kwaiva pakati pe 2017 ne 2019. Zvakatora nguva yakareba kwazvo kuti itange kuderera pepa rekuenzanisa mushure mekukwira mana mubereko muna 2015. Uye zvakatora gore rose kuti Fed isvike pahuwandu hwemadhora makumi mashanu emadhora pamwedzi.
Iyi denderedzwa yekuderera inogona kubva pa zero kusvika pamadhora makumi mapfumbamwe nemashanu emadhora mumwedzi mitatu.Misika inotarisira kuderedzwa kwepagore kweanopfuura madhora 1.1 tiririyoni.Izvi zvinoreva kuti pakupera kwegore rino kana kutanga kwegore rinouya, kukurumidza kwechibvumirano kunotarisirwa kudarika huwandu hwese 2017-2019 kutenderera.
Kana ichienzaniswa neyakapfuura, Federal Reserve yakadzikisa chiyero chayo nekukurumidza uye nekusimba kukuru, uye yakatumira chiratidzo chakasimba chekusimbisa.Ko chirongwa "chine hasha" chekudzikisa chiyero chemari chichamhanyisa kukwira kwegoho rePfuma?
Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro, kutenderera uku kwekudzikira kuchave "kungomira" muchimiro chekumira kubatanidza Reinvestment.Nekudaro, "passive" shrinkage yebalance sheet haina kuumba musika kutengesa odha, haingasundire zvakananga kumagumo emubereko wemubereko, kukanganisa pamari yemubereko kwakanyanya kunanga.Tichitarisa kubva pakuita kwemusika, mitengo yemhindu yemusika ichangoburwa, kusanganisira Treasury bond rates uye mortgage rates, yatove mutengo-mukukanganisa kunotevera mubereko kukwira nekudzika-pepa kuderera, uye kuda kusarudza yakanyanya "gondo" mhedzisiro.
Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-23-2022