12/30/2022

Inflation inoramba ichitonhora!

"Inflation" ndiro izwi rakakosha pahupfumi hweUS muna 2022.

 

Mutengo weConsumer Price Index (CPI) wakakwira muhafu yekutanga yegore, mitengo ichikwira kubva papeturu kuenda kunyama, mazai, nemukaka nezvimwe.

Muchikamu chechipiri chegore, sezvo US Federal Reserve yakaramba ichisimudza mhindu uye matambudziko mukutengesa kwepasi rose zvishoma nezvishoma zvakavandudzwa, kuwedzera kweCPI mwedzi-pa-mwedzi zvishoma nezvishoma kwakaderera, asi kuwedzera kwegore negore kuchiri kuwedzera. pachena, kunyanya core rate CPI inoramba yakakwirira, izvo zvinoita kuti vanhu vazvidye mwoyo kuti inflation inogona kuramba yakakwirira kwenguva yakareba.

Zvisinei, ichangoburwa inflation inoratidzika kunge yakazivisa zvakawanda zve "nhau dzakanaka", iyo CPI yakaramba nzira inova yakajeka uye yakajeka.

 

Kutevera zvakanyanya kunonoka-kupfuura-inotarisirwa kukura kweCPI munaNovember uye yakaderera kukura kwegore, iyo Fed inonyanya kufarirwa inflation chiratidzo, iyo core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index isingabatanidzi chikafu nesimba, inononoka kwemwedzi wechipiri mumutsara.

Pamusoro pezvo, ongororo yeYunivhesiti yeMichigan yetarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yevatengi kwegore rinouya yakakwira kupfuura zvaitarisirwa kusvika kune yakaderera kubva muna Chikumi apfuura.

Sezvauri kuona, data razvino rinoratidza kuti inflation muUS yaramba, asi chiratidzo ichi chichagara uye inflation ichaita sei muna 2023?

 

The Great Inflation 2022 Summary

Parizvino gore rino, United States yakasangana nemhando ye hyperinflation inoitika kamwe chete pamakumi mana emakore ega ega, uye ukuru uye nguva yekukwira kukuru uku kuri munhoroondo.

(a) Pasinei nekukwira kweFed kunowedzera simba, inflation inoramba ichipfuura zvinotarisirwa nemusika - CPI yakasvika pakakwirira ye9.1% gore negore munaJune uye yakanonoka kuderera.

Core inflation CPI yakakwira kusvika pa6.6% munaGunyana isati yadonha zvishoma kusvika 6.0% muna Mbudzi, ichiri pamusoro peiyo Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

Ongorora zvikonzero zveyazvino hyperinflation, izvo zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nekubatanidzwa kwekuda kwakasimba uye kushomeka kwekupa.

Kune rimwe divi, mitemo yehurumende yekusimudzira mari inoshamisa kubvira denda iri rawedzera kudiwa kwevatengi neveruzhinji.

Nekune rimwe divi, basa repashure-denda uye kushomeka kwezvekushandisa uye kukanganisa kwegakava rezvematongerwo enyika zvakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu nemasevhisi, izvo zvakawedzerwa nekuwedzerwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwekupihwa.

Kugadziriswa kwezvikamu zveCPI: simba, rendi, mubairo "moto mitatu" yekutevedzana kwekukwira pamwe chete kune inflationary fever haiperi.

 

Muhafu yekutanga yegore, yainyanya kuwedzera mutengo musimba uye zvinhu izvo zvakaendesa kukwira kwemitengo kwese CPI, nepo muhafu yechipiri yegore, inflation mumasevhisi akadai serendi uye mihoro yaidzora kukwira kwekukwira kwemitengo.

 

2023 Zvikonzero zvitatu zvikuru zvichadzosera kumashure inflation

Parizvino, zviratidzo zvese ndezvekuti inflation yakwira, uye zvinhu zvinokwidza inflation muna 2022 zvichapera zvishoma nezvishoma, uye CPI inowanzoratidza kudzikira muna 2023.

Kutanga, chiyero chekukura kwekushandisa kwevatengi (PCE) chicharamba chichiderera.

Mari yekushandiswa kwemunhu pazvinhu zvino yadonha mwedzi nemwedzi kwezvikamu zviviri mumutsara, inova ndiyo inonyanya kufambisa kuderera kweramangwana mukukwira kwemitengo.

Tichipesana nemamiriro ekukwira kwemitengo yekukwereta nekuda kwekukwira kweFed mubereko, panogona kuve nekumwe kudzikira kwekushandisa kwemunhu.

 

Chechipiri, kugovera kwacho kwakadzoka zvishoma nezvishoma.

Dhata kubva kuNew York Fed inoratidza kuti Global Supply Chain Stress Index yakaramba ichidonha kubva panguva yayo yakakwira muna 2021, ichinongedza kumwe kudzikira kwemitengo yezvinhu.

Chechitatu, kuwedzera kwerendi kwakatanga shanduko.

Kukwikwidziridzwa kwakakwira neFederal Reserve muna 2022 kwakakonzera kuti mitengo yemba ikwire uye mitengo yemba ichidzike, izvo zvakakwidzawo marendi pasi, indekisi yerendi yadzika kwemwedzi yakati wandei yakatevedzana.

Nhoroondo, rendi dzinowanzoita mwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura pane rendi yekugara muCPI, saka kumwe kudzikira kwekukwira kwemitengo kuchatevera, zvichitungamirwa nekudzikira kwerendi.

Zvichienderana nezvikonzero zviri pamusoro apa, chiyero chegore chekuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwemari chinotarisirwa kuderera zvakanyanya muhafu yekutanga yegore rinouya.

Zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kweGoldman Sachs, CPI ichadonha zvishoma kusvika pazasi 6% mukota yekutanga uye nekumhanyisa muchikamu chechipiri nechechitatu.

 

Uye pakupera kwa2023, iyo CPI ingangodonha pasi pe3%.

Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS;mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo.Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira.Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega.Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu.Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.