Imwe Twist! Kukura KweGDP Kunopfuura Zvinotarisirwa, Mutengo Wakachekwa Uchiri Patafura?

Musi weChina, Chikunguru 25th, Dhipatimendi reKutengeserana reUnited States rakabudisa data rinoratidza kuti GDP chaiyo yekota-over-quarter-quarter growth rate yeQ2 yaiva 2.8%, inodarika inotarisirwa 2% uye yakakwirira kudarika kukosha kwekare kwe1.4%.

Iyo yegore yekota-pamusoro-kota yakakosha PCE mutengo index yeQ2 yakauya pa2.9%, ichipfuura yaitarisirwa 2.7%, asi yakaderera pane yapfuura kukosha kwe3.7%.

Kutevera kuburitswa kwedata, iyo gumi yemakore Treasury goho yakawedzera zvishoma isati yadzokera zvishoma, negoho razvino richiri kutenderera 4.2%.

Vatyairi veGDP Kukura

Kuiputsa, ivo vanonyanya kupa mukukura kweQ2 GDP kwaive kushandiswa kwevatengi, kushambadzira kwegainvestment, uye isiri-yekugara fixed investment.

Yakavanzika inventory investimendi kazhinji inoreva masheya emidziyo inobatwa nemabhizinesi kuti asangane nekugadzirwa nekutengesa zvinodiwa, zvinosanganisira mbishi zvinhu, kushanda-mu-kufambira mberi, uye zvinhu zvakapedzwa.
Isiri yekugara yakatemerwa investimendi kazhinji inoreva kudyara mune zvakagadziriswa midziyo yezvisiri zvekugara, senge yekutengesa real estate, zvivakwa zvehofisi, mafekitori, nezvimwe.
Pakati peizvi, mashandisiro emunhu akanyanya kukosha paGDP, achikura ne1.57%, kuwedzera kunoshamisa kubva pachikamu chakapfuura che0.98%.
Mupiro wekukura kwezvinyorwa zvepachivande zvakare wakaona kuwedzera kukuru, kubva -0.42% muQ1 kusvika ku0.82%. Mupiro wehurumende kuGDP wakawedzera zvakafanana kubva pa0.31% kusvika pa0.53%.

Irizvino data rehupfumi rinoratidza kuti US iri munzira yekuwana "kunyorova kumhara" - kwakasimba kukura kwehupfumi uku inflation ichidzika zvishoma nezvishoma. Tarisiro iyi inofurira zvakanakaIZVImusika chivimbo.

Mutengo Uchiri Kuchekwa Here?

Pasinei nekukura kwehupfumi huri nani-kupfuura-inotarisirwa, tarisiro yekuderedza chiyero haina kudzokera shure. Zvinoenderana neCME Group data, mwero wakachekwa munaGunyana unenge uine chokwadi, paine mukana we100%. Mukana weanosvika matatu chiyero chekucheka gore rino wasvikawo ingangoita 60%.

Zvinonyanya kukosha, musangano weFederal Reserve's policy musi waChikunguru 30 uchakanganisa zvakanyanya pamusika, uye sezvezvino data, pane mukana we6.7% wekuti Fed ichazivisa kuderedzwa kwechiyero pamusangano waChikunguru.

Sezvineiwo, aimbova Mutungamiriri weNew York Fed William Dudley munguva pfupi yapfuura akachinja maitiro ake ekare, achikurudzira kuti Fed inogona kuderedza mitengo pamusangano waChikunguru.

Mutsivi wake paGoldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, akabvunzawo mumushumo wekare, "Sei kumirira kusvika munaSeptember?" Mashoko eruzhinji akadai kubva kune vane mukurumbira anoita seari kugadzira pfungwa yekukurumidzira kuti Fed idere mitengo.

Pamusoro pemusangano unouya wemitemo, iyo Jackson Hole Symposium mukupera kwaNyamavhuvhu inofanirwawo kutarisa.

Sachigaro weFed Jerome Powell angangoratidza kuchinja kwekutonga kwenjodzi pamusangano wesymposium, wakafanana negore rapfuura, zvichida kupa hurongwa hwekuongorora kushayikwa kwemabasa uye inflation dynamics uye kufunga nezvekukanganisa kwemitemo yemari pahupfumi chaihwo. Izvi zvinogona kushanda se "rutsigiro rwedzidziso" rwekuchekwa kwechiyero munaGunyana uye kupa bhenji yekumisikidzwa kwepakati-temu remitemo mukati megore rinotevera, pamwe kuburikidza nekuongorora mamiriro kana data threshold.

Kubva Federal Reserve yakazivisa kuwedzera kwemakumi maviri neshanu mubenchmark mubenchmark musi waKurume 17, 2022, kutenderera kuri kuita kukwira kwakatora makore maviri uye kwave kusvika kumagumo. Ticharamba tichiongorora zvirikuitika mune remangwana.