Market Crash! Japan's Stock Market Inoona Nhoroondo Kudonha: Chii Chakaitika?

Musi waNyamavhuvhu 5, misika yemari yepasi rose yakaona chiitiko chinokatyamadza: Musika wemasheya weJapan wakasangana nekudonha kukuru kwezuva rimwe munhoroondo. Iyo Nikkei Index yakadzikira ne12.4% muzuva rimwe chete, ichidzima 4,451 mapoinzi, kudonha kwakanyanya kudarika Black Monday muna 1987.

Mumazuva mashoma ekutengesa, kuderera kwekuwedzera kwakasvika 26%. Izvi zvakaerekanaCRAsh haina kungozunungusa Japan chete asi yakakonzeresa kuita kweketani mumisika yepasi rose. Misika yemisika yeSouth Korea neTaiwan yakadzikawo ne9%, ukuwo ma indices makuru eUS akadonha ne3%. Saka chii chaizvo chakakonzera dambudziko remari iri?

Munondo Unocheka Kaviri weYen Carry Trade

Kuti unzwisise kudzikira kuchangobva kuitika mumusika wemasheya weJapan, munhu anofanira kutanga anzwisisa kutengeserana kweyen.

Kwenguva refu, nekuda kwekuderera kwakanyanya kweyen mubereko, vatengesi vepasi rose vakakwereta mayen akawanda uye vakaashandura kuita mari dzinopa goho repamusoro kuti vawane misiyano yemitengo.

Nekudaro, iyi inoita seisina njodzi-isina arbitrage trade inovanza njodzi dzakakura. Kana mubairo wekusiyana pakati peyen nedhora uchichinja, iyi arbitrage modhi inogona kukurumidza kudonha. Muna Kurume wegore rino, Bhanga reJapan rakaita kukwira kwayo kwekutanga mumakore gumi nemanomwe, zvichipedza mutemo wakashata wemubereko.

Musi waChikunguru 31, Japan yakasimudza mitengo zvakare, nepo panguva imwecheteyo, inflation yeUS yakadzikira, zvichiita kuti musika utarise zvakanyanya Federal.Reservekuderedza mitengo munaSeptember.

Iyi nhevedzano yezviito yakanangana nekudzikiswa kwemubereko wekusiyanisa pakati peyen nedhora, zvichikanganisa hwaro hweyen kutakura kutengeserana. Vagadziri vemari vakatanga kutenga mahombe eyen mumusika wekuchinjana kune dzimwe nyika kuti vadzorere chikwereti chavo cheyen, zvichiita kuti yen iwedzere 12% padhora mumwedzi mumwe chete.

Iyo Buffett Mhedzisiro

Mudutu rezvemari iri, vatengesi vepasi rese, kusanganisira Warren Buffett, vakaita basa mukuwedzera mamiriro ezvinhu. Munguva yedenda ra2020, Buffett akatanga kudyara mumusika wemasheya weJapan, achitenga nhevedzano yemasheya akakwira-dividend. Pakazosvika 2023, Buffett akawedzera kudyara kwake mumusika wemasheya weJapan, zvichikonzera mhirizhonga yepasi rose yemasheya eJapan.

Muna 2023, mambure ekutenga nevanoisa mari mhiri kwemakungwa mumusika wemasheya weJapan zvakapfuura 3 trillion yen, zvichisundira iyo Nikkei 225 Index kumusoro ne28% mukati megore. Pakazosvika Kurume 2024, indekisi yakanga yatyora 40,000-point barriers, nekuwedzera kweinoda kusvika makumi masere%.

Kunyangwe hupfumi hweJapan husati hwanyatsogadzirika, musika wemasheya weJapan wakasvika pakakwirira munhoroondo, uchifambiswa zvakanyanya nevaisi vemari vekunze.

Nekudaro, sezvo mwero weyen uchikwira uye kuderedzwa kwaifungidzirwa kweUS mitengo kwakaungana panguva yenhoroondo, mabhizinesi ekunze aya akatanga kutengesa zvakanyanya masheya eJapan, zvichikonzera kusagadzikana kwemusika. Mumusika uri kukurumidza kudzikira, mari zhinji yakasimudzwa yakamanikidzwa kupera, zvichiita kuti iwedzere kuderera uye nhevedzano yemhedzisiro. Saka, njodzi yenhau mumusika wemasheya weJapan yakatanga.

Ramangwana Outlook

Mushure mekuparara, Bank of Japan Mutevedzeri Gavhuna Shinichi Uchida akakurumidza kutaura, "Hatisi kuzosimudza mitero pasi pemamiriro emusika wemari asina kugadzikana." Kunyange chirevo ichi chakapa zororo renguva pfupi kumusika, tarisiro yenguva refu yekukwidzwa kwemitengo neBhange reJapan inoita kunge isingachinjike.

Zvichakadaro, data razvino kubva kuDhipatimendi reVashandi reUS rakaratidza kuderera kukuru kwezvichemo zvekutanga zvekushaya basa, kuderera kukuru kwegore, zvichiratidza kuvandudzwa kwemusika webasa. Idzi data rinomira zvakasiyana neresvondo rapfuura, iro rakamutsa nhaurirano pamusoro pekuderera kweUS.

Tichifunga nezvemusika wemabhondi, izvi zvakakonzera kudzikira kukuru kuchiteverwa nekudzokororwa kune goho riri pamusoro pe4%.

Nekudaro, nekufamba kwenguva, tarisiro yemusika yeFederal Reserve rate yekucheka iri kuwedzera kusimba. Mikana ye50-basis-point rate yakatemwa munaGunyana yakakwira kubva pa22% svondo rapfuura kusvika pa56.5% nguva pfupi yadarika. Pamusoro pe70% yemusika inotenda kuti kune inopfuura 78% mukana weiyo yakazara chiyero yakatemwa inodarika zana mapoinzi gore rino.

Maitiro ekuderedzwa kwechiyero cheUS anoita seasingadzivisiki, anenge achisimbisa kuti boom mumusika wemasheya weJapan wapera. Kuti zvinhu zvichafamba sei zvinoramba zvichionekwa.

Chirevo: Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa neAAA LENDIS; mamwe emifananidzo akatorwa kubva kuInternet, nzvimbo yesaiti haina kumiririrwa uye haigone kudhindwa zvakare pasina mvumo. Pane njodzi mumusika uye mari inofanira kungwarira. Ichi chinyorwa hachiumbe zano rekudyara wega, uye haritarise zvinangwa zvekudyara, mamiriro emari kana zvinodiwa zvevashandisi vega. Vashandisi vanofanirwa kufunga kuti chero maonero, maonero kana mhedziso dzirimo dzirimo dzakaenderana nemamiriro avo ezvinhu. Isai mari zvinoenderana nenjodzi yenyu.