Kugadzirisa Toni Yekuchekwa Kwemwero waSeptember? Hurukuro yaPowell paSvondo Inotevera yeJackson Hole Symposium Inobatidza Zvinotarisirwa Musika!

Musi waNyamavhuvhu 23, FederalReserveSachigaro Jerome Powell achapa hurukuro yakakosha paJackson Hole Economic Symposium, chiitiko chave chiri musimboti wemisika yemari yepasi rose. Semutambo wepagore webhangi repakati, zvinotarisirwa kumisa toni yesarudzo yechiyero chaGunyana uye ichave nguva yakaoma pakusarudza remangwana remari.

Iyo Historical Midzi yeJackson Hole
Jackson Hole, guta diki rakakomberedzwa nemakomo echando, rinogamuchira "mapilgrim" enyika yezvemari Nyamavhuvhu wega wega. Tsika iyi yakatanga muna 1982 apo Sachigaro weFed panguva iyoyo Paul Volcker, muredzi wehove anoshingaira, akasarudza nzvimbo iyi yemusangano.

Volcker akanga asiri muredzi ane hunyanzvi chete asiwo mutsinhanisi wegwara remari. Munguva yekukwira kwemitengo kwakakwira, akambokwidza mibairo kusvika pamusoro pe20% mune imwe kuenda, sucIZVIkudzora kukwira kwemitengo nekukanganisa kwakasimba uye netarisiro yakasimba.

Kubva ipapo, iyo Jackson Hole Symposium yave ine mukurumbira munyika yezvemari, paine akawanda makuru sarudzo akaiswa pano. Munguva yedambudziko reRussia muna 1998, Sachigaro weFed panguva iyoyo, Alan Greenspan, akasangana muchivande nevatungamiriri veFed vematunhu panguva yemusangano, zvichikonzera kudzikiswa kwechiyero. Muna 2010, Ben Bernanke akazivisa kuberekwa kweQE2 pano, kushamisa nyika.

Powell's Jackson Hole Moment
Gore rakapera, kutaura kwaPowell paJackson Hole Symposium kwakaratidza chimiro chehawkish, kusimbisazve 2% chinangwa chekukwira kwemitengo uye zvichiratidza kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kana zvichidiwa.

Zvisinei, nguva dzachinja. Hupfumi huripo hwakatarisana nekukura kuri kuderera, uye inflation inflation yatodzika, zvichiita kuti musika utarise zvakanyanya kuti Fed itange kutenderera-yekudzora.

Hurukuro yaPowell panguva ino inogona kutarisa nezvemamiriro ehupfumi aripo, kushanda kwemusika wevashandi, uye maonero ekukwira kwemitengo.

Tichifunga nezvekuvandudzwa kuchangobva kuitika mukutengesa kwezvitoro uye data rekutanga rekushaiwa basa, anogona kupa ongororo yakadzikama yemaonero ehupfumi. Zvichakadaro, musika uchange uchitsvaga zvinongedzo nezve huwandu hweyero yekucheka, uchifungidzira kana paine isingatarisirwe 50-basis point point.

Gore rapfuura, dingindira rekutaura kwaPowell raive "Economic Outlook," richisimbisa kuenderera uye kugadzikana kwegwaro remari. Gore rino, angavakira pahwaro ihwohwo, achiwedzera kutsanangura pamusoro pekuongorora kweFed kwemamiriro ezvinhu ehupfumi huripo uye mazano ekupindura.

Inogona Impact
Nhoroondo ndiye mudzidzisi akanakisisa. Hurukuro yega yega yakakosha paJackson Hole Symposium yakaperekedzwa nekushanduka kukuru kwemusika. Kutaura kwaBernanke's QE2 muna 2010 kwakapinza kukurudzira kwakasimba mumisika yemari yepasi rose; hint yake ya2012 ye "QE isingaperi" yakatumira musika pane roller coaster ride. Hurukuro yaPowell's hawkish gore rapfuura yakakonzerawo kusagadzikana kwemusika.

Kana kutaura kwaPowell panguva ino kunoratidza kuderedzwa kwakajeka kwechiyero, musika unogona kuzvidudzira semhinduro yekuderera kwehupfumi, nekudaro kuwedzera njodzi midziyo. Zvisinei, kana kutaura kunosendamira hawkish, kuchisimbisa inflation ngozi, musika unogona kuva kusava nechokwadi pamusoro Fed’s policy gwara, zvichiita kuti volatility mumatanda uye zvisungo.

Zvakare, kutaura kwaPowell kunogonawo kukanganisa gwara remari yedzimwe nyika. Muhupfumi hwanhasi hwakabatanidzwa pasi rose, sarudzo dzeFed hadzingokanganisa United States chete asiwo dzine mhedzisiro inosvika kure pahupfumi hwenyika.