05/31/2024

Kuderera Kwehupfumi, Kuderera Kwemari

Zvinoenderana nedata yakadzokororwa yakaburitswa neDhipatimendi reCommerce reUS muna Chivabvu 30, kukura kwekota-on-kota kukura kweUS real GDP kwekota yekutanga ya2024 yaive 1.3%, yakaderera 0.3 muzana mapoinzi kubva pafungidziro yekutanga ye1.6% uye yakaderera zvakanyanya kupfuura kukura kwe3.4% mukota yechina yegore rapfuura.

Kugadziriswa uku kwainyanya kukonzerwa nekushandiswa kwemunhu wega (PCE) kudonha pane zvinotarisirwa. Kukura kwekota-on-quarter kukura kwePCE mukutanga kwekutanga kwaiva 2%, pasi pe0.5 muzana kubva pakufungidzira kwekutanga kwe2.5% uye pasi pekutarisira kwemusika kwe2.2%.

Pamberi pekukwira kwemitengo, iyo PCE mutengo index yakakura 3.3% pane yegore gore-pa-kota hwaro mukota yekutanga, zvishoma pazasi pekutanga kufanotaura. Iyo yakakosha PCE mutengo index yakakwira ne 3.6%, pasi 0.1 muzana kubva pachiyero chekutanga che3.7%, uye yakanyanya kukwirira kupfuura 2% kukura mukota yechina yegore rapfuura. Kunyange zvazvo izvi zvichiratidza kuti kukwira kwemitengo kuchiripo, zvinoratidzawo kuti inflation iri munzira ine mwero.

Chikonzero chikuru chekuderera kwekukura kweGDP chaiyo mukota yekutanga kwaive kusasimba kwakanyanya mukushandiswa kwemidziyo, kunyanya pamotokari, nedata rekushandisa kwevatengi richidzokororwa pasi. Zvichienzaniswa nefungidziro yekutanga, kutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kushandiswa kwehurumende kwakadererawo. Nekudaro, mari yekugara uye kutengwa kunze kwenyika kwakaratidza kupora.

GDP Inotarisirwa Kudzokororwa muQ2

Kunyangwe kuderera kwekukura kwehupfumi mukota yekutanga, fungidziro ichangoburwa inoratidza kuti huwandu hwekukura muchikamu chechipiri hunogona kusvika pa3% kana kupfuura, zvichiratidza kudzoreredza kwenguva pfupi muhupfumi. Zvisinei, kusimba uye kusimba kwekupora uku kunoramba kusina chokwadi.

Vaongorori vanotenda kuti kunyangwe GDP ichidzokororwa muchikamu chechipiri, hupfumi hweUS hahugone kuratidza simba rakasimba muhafu yechipiri yegore.

Vatengi vari kufanirwa kunyura mumari yavo kuti vachengetedze mazinga ekushandisa mari, uye kuramba kukwira kwemitengo kuri kukanganisa simba ravo rekutenga. Pamusoro pezvo, sarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika iri kuuya inogona kutungamira mabhizinesi kutora nzira yekuchenjerera pakushandisa mari nekudyara.

Zvinotarisirwa nemusika mukuru wechiyero chakachekwa neFederal Reserve mukati megore zvadzikira zvakanyanya. Kubhejera kwemusika padanho rekutanga kuchekwa kwakasundirwa kubva kune yaimbotarisirwa Gunyana kusvika Mbudzi. Mukana wekuderedzwa kwechiyero munaGunyana wadzikawo kubva pa70% kusvika pa50%.

Kusawirirana Pamusoro Penguva Yekuderedzwa Kwemitengo Kunowedzera

Maminitsi kubva kumusangano weFederal Reserve's policy anoratidza kuti vatori vechikamu vazhinji vanotenda kuti pane kuenderera mberi kusava nechokwadi maererano nekukwira kwemitengo uye vanobvumirana pamwe chete kuti data ichangoburwa haina kuwedzera chivimbo chavo mukukwira kwemitengo kunodzokera ku2%. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti Fed ichiri kuona inflation sechinhu chikuru mumatongerwo ayo emari.

Zvisinei, pane vamwe vane tariro yakanaka pakati pavo. Federal Reserve Gavhuna Christopher Waller ane tarisiro pamusoro pekudzikira kweinflation, achiti hapana chikonzero chekuwedzera kukwidzwa kwemitengo uye inotsigira kutemwa kwekutanga.

Muhurukuro kuPeterson Institute for International Economics musi wa21 Chivabvu, Waller akati data rekukwira kwemitengo yaApril rinoratidza kuti kufambira mberi kusvika pachikamu che2% kunogona kunge kwatangazve, zvichiratidza kuti inflation yeUS haina kuwedzera uye kuti kuwedzera kwemitengo hakuna kukosha.

Waller anonyanya kutarisa pane isiri-kugadzira PMI. Iyo yazvino data inoratidza kuti iyo isiri-kugadzira PMI, iyo inoverengera chikamu chikuru chekubuda, yakawira pasi pemakumi mashanu, ichirova iyo yakaderera nzvimbo kubva muna Zvita 2022, zvichiratidza kudzikira mukuita kwehupfumi.

Akataura kuti kana aya maitiro e data akaenderera mberi, zvinoreva kuti basa rehupfumi kunze kwekugadzira riri kuderera. Kana iyi data ikaramba ichipfava mukati memwedzi 3-5 inotevera, iyo Fed ingangofanira kutanga chiyero chekucheka.

Kusiyana neizvi, Gavhuna weFederal Reserve Michelle Bowman anotarisira kuti inflation yeUS irambe yakakwira kwenguva yakareba uye akadzokorora kuti kuwedzera kwemitengo kunokwanisika kana zvichidikanwa.

"Kana ruzivo rwuri kuuya ruchiratidza kuti kufambira mberi mukurwisa inflation kwamira kana kudzokera kumashure, ndinoramba ndakagadzirira kukwidza huwandu hwemari yemubatanidzwa pamisangano inotevera," akadaro.

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